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2019 Perth Cup - early thoughts.

West Australian Racing

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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited December 2018
    Khartoum looks out.
    Kiwia was great in winning the Ballarat Cup then thought very dissapointing in the Pakenham Cup, which can show how hard they are to follow sometimes.
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  • udontknowudontknow    570 posts
    thefalcon said:

    MM still in the cup but dal harraild is officially out.
    I don't think MM's owners are consumed by prize money they just want a reasonably fresh horse to  go over east. 2400m with a big weight could stuff it..win, lose or draw.
    remember a lot of horses are going to be on the minimum in the cup.



    WA RACING NEWS UPDATE: MATERIAL MAN OUT OF PERTH CUP

    11 DECEMBER, 2018

     THOROUGHBRED

    MATERIAL MAN

    Material Man won’t be defending his Perth Cup crown on Jan 5.  The Justin Warwick-trained gelding defeated Pounamu in a thrilling finish last year, but will end his Ascot campaign in Group 2 Ted Van Heemst Stakes (2100m) on December 22.
    “We are not going in the Perth Cup,” said owner Michael McDermott on Tabradio.

    “I’m done with the Perth Cup. In my lifetime I never thought I would win it.

    “We will go in the Ted Van Heemst and then reassess our position.

    “I’m looking at the eastern states.”

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  • udontknowudontknow    570 posts
    edited December 2018
    MM Not in betting anymore
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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited December 2018
    33 horses still in the field. Hopefully they'll get a full field of 16 from them.
    If you look at the Tabtouch market...start at Galaxy Star and go down to Prying Tom..after him the rest have no chance!!

    Although did have a sentimental $10 each way on Dark Musket at $151 and $38.50. He's got buckleys! See he's into 100/1 though.
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  • GLAMOURGLAMOUR    877 posts
    No doubt Pateman goes bsck on Gatting,ss SOJ now turned out,or after her win on him does Warwick with MM out?im picking Pateman as he seems to have become the regular for stable as long as it is in his weight range.
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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    I still don't see how Gatting isn't second favorite, if not favorite.

    He's the best horse bar Galaxy star on ratings and form AND has proven beyond 2000m.

    I'm set at $14 so just hope he gets there now

    Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited December 2018
    Agree Bomber.

    Also for punters who don't mind taking the odds on...but on the day if he's at around $1.60 to $1.70 on the place tote is Galaxy Star the biggest certain place bet of all time?!

    Wins a Group One Railway hitting the line strongly, comes home full of running in a KT and now goes to a Perth Cup that's slowly falling away in strength.

    The way the minimum weighted horses are so badly in, shouldn't mean his weight will be a problem. He's pretty classy in my book. Even if drew barrier 16 think he's a place special.
    Pick 'em to win...back 'em a place.

    H-BOMBER likes this post.

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  • thefalconthefalcon    20,495 posts
    hey riders are  you the bloke hitting the perth ring with huge place bets?
    heard he had 20k a place on arcadia queen...
    the thing with bets like that..a couple of hurdles and you're pharqued….
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  • TheDivaTheDiva    13,248 posts
    I reckon i know the bloke... he's been round for a while... but only just re-appeared after being off the scene for a few years.
    He had a bad day... a while back... like you say and disappeared. 
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited December 2018
    Haha no not me Falcon. Is that so...very true and that's the thing with odds on betting whether win or place...you need to keep several rolling in before a loss can be tolerated.

    The place bet...it's the simplest form of betting.
    Nothing complicated. It's the one bet that Tabcorp should drop the takeout rate on to say 10% and get a resurgence of the humble place bet going.
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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited December 2018
    Can a punter like him select say 3 certain place getters a week at around $1.50 ?

    Well he needs to because if gets 2 right at $1.50 he's only square. One correct out of three at 20k a race and down 30k.
    Three wrong in a row ( it's possible! ) 60k down.
    Flip side three correct up 30k.

    If you go down say to $1.30 or $1.20 the room for failure becomes very small. Odds on betting you need a strong heart.
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  • thefalconthefalcon    20,495 posts
    a strong heart...no way....you'd have to be a few genes away from being a complete bloody moron... 8-}
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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited December 2018
    Wonder what the overall result would be backing Pikey for a place say for three months over the big race period of November/December/January.

    Many $1.04s and $1.10s there!
    Am guessing would be behind...but there would be worse systems.
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  • thefalconthefalcon    20,495 posts
    following a postillion is a one way ticket to the poor house....and I even mean those genius's in HK.
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  • careycarey    6,424 posts
    Ridersonthestorm33 said:

    Wonder what the overall result would be backing Pikey for a place say for three months over the big race period of November/December/January.

    Many $1.04s and $1.10s there!
    Am guessing would be behind...but there would be worse systems.

    i can sell you a sure fire way of cutting your utility bills in half, if you are interested?!
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  • paraleticparaletic    3,750 posts
    kudos to the guys that can have $20k on a horse to place. Takes reasonable sized marbles

    Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited December 2018
    @carey with the high cost of utility bills...who wouldn't be interested ?

    I did try backing ''good things'' favourites for a place at a time...lasted two weeks!
    Agree @Parra need a bit of ticker and guts. That's the other thing with odds on betting...a lot of money to invest to get a decent return, and a loss can be costly...two losses catastrophic.
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  • careycarey    6,424 posts
    a pair of scissors should do the trick cutting your bills in half.

    need the same sort of trick to make money off pike's placegetters.


    Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

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  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    paraletic said:

    kudos to the guys that can have $20k on a horse to place. Takes reasonable sized marbles

    I think the opposite is the case. It's odds on most of the time and that's supposed to be a reason to 'look on'
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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited December 2018
    Haha..too true @carey.

    At the end of January if still around, will do a review of how backing Pikey for a place on the tote during Nov/Dec/Jan has fared.
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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited December 2018
    Tabtouch has Kiawa @$11 but no sign of Khartoum in the field.
    Bet365 has Khartoum @13 but no sign of Kiawa in their market.

    365...is betting $13 about Action quite good, but only a skinny $7.50 Cappa 'D Oro.
    Am leaning that neither Kiawa or Khartoum will run.
    So possibly no eastern staters - very dissapointing if that's the case.

    Might as well change the name of the race from Perth Cup to The Usual Suspects Handicap b-(
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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited December 2018
    In the future though still think has the potential to be a great race again.
    Right now it's on the precipice of fading away or becoming a top class race.

    Get the Galaxy Star, Pounamu, Material Man types involved...the Railway, KT type horses who can stay..and go on a mission to get some eastern staters.

    Am even happy to see the distance come down to 2200 metres. Ouch.
    Start the race closer to a full stand.

    Railway - 1600.
    KT - 1800.
    Cup - 2200.
    Three big ones. A good bonus to any horse winning all three. If he wins the Cup, Galaxy Star not too far off. Get the more classier horse involved as well as the usual suspects.
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  • thefalconthefalcon    20,495 posts
    riders, as someone who remembers perth cup day as the epitome of our racing. the crowds were huge, the programme fantastic with I think group and listed support races.
    nowdays its just a  very ordinary middle distant handicap.
    those running PR have NFI...

    jum likes this post.

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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited December 2018
    The 3200 metre race - The WA Cup - that's been a great idea. At least full marks for whoever came up with that. Increase the prize money too.

    That's the competitive race for a horse like a Dark Musket etc.

    How about a 50k bonus for a horse to be placed in the Railway - KT - Cup...does that become an incentive for Material Man to run ? Guess finding the money for bonuses is the problem.

    They need to get quality somehow.
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  • thefalconthefalcon    20,495 posts
    riders and others..you might notice vic and nsw races have a middle distant (or 2) on each programme. we are lucky to get 1 a fortnight..usually 2000/2200m..then there is a gap.
    in the winter we had 3 cup races  the Belmont park, the edgar meers and the winter cup..the latter being 2400m.
    those fools in charge of PR have desimated  middle distant races. why? God knows. can I take a guess at the influential breeders of sprinter type horse.
    make up your own opinions.

    Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited December 2018
    Also relates to why overseas horses ran 1,2,3,4,5 in the Melbourne Cup.
    We haven't got any stayers. Or very few - Youngstar did well - 6th.

    Americain might throw a few at stud - but it's going to take some time.
    People can't still remain in that era where Melbourne Cup horses are going to run in a Perth Cup again. It's over.

    Ballarat Cup, Bendigo and Pakenham Cups are the horses to chase and get here. That's all there is.
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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited December 2018
    So far not a cracker for former Cup winner Star Exhibit drifting out to 16/1 with some books. A bit of specking for The Big Show into about 14/1.
    Yesterday's winner Brothers Keeper firms to 33/1.

    Still got a hunch about Star Exhibit...keep going back to Neverland being out of form before rocketing home at a big price when a nose second to his stablemate in the Cup. Hoping this guy can do the same.

    By the same token he's definetly been a little dissapointing.
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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    I'll just keep saying it...Gatting still $11 with horses like Cappo doro and Prying Tom now 9 and 8.25 respectively in front of him. Mississippi Delta got found out last start and both action and perfect Jewel arnet in the same vein of form.

    Please.

    I just keep getting the feeling there is something I don't know as he should be second fav at 5.50. At worst he runs second to Galaxy Star. She's got to run the 2400 AND concede 3kg to him.
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  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited December 2018
    H-BOMBER said:

    I'll just keep saying it...Gatting still $11  

    H-BOMBER said:

    I just keep getting the feeling there is something 

    You don't know whether he will even start at this point. You have the overs, either the market is wrong or it's too good to be true and there's a reason. Bookies do get it wrong, that's why they ban winning punters

    H-BOMBER likes this post.

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  • paraleticparaletic    3,750 posts
    H-BOMBER said:

    I'll just keep saying it...Gatting still $11 with horses like Cappo doro and Prying Tom now 9 and 8.25 respectively in front of him. Mississippi Delta got found out last start and both action and perfect Jewel arnet in the same vein of form.

    Please.

    I just keep getting the feeling there is something I don't know as he should be second fav at 5.50. At worst he runs second to Galaxy Star. She's got to run the 2400 AND concede 3kg to him.



    we are singing from the same prayer book. Ive been peppering the price bit by bit for 8 days.....
    +1 -1
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