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2019 Perth Cup - early thoughts.

West Australian Racing
Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
edited December 2018 West Australian Racing
Has very little chance in the Kingston Town but saw a glimpse of a return to form of Star Exhibit in the Railway and as a former Perth Cup winner he might be on the right path again. Currently $13. If he's running on in the KT then those odds will be looking ok.

The other one that could be value and also at $13 is stablemate Perfect Jewel. Terrific in the Railway Stakes and likewise if runs well, the $13 could be value.
Whether either get to the Cup is the great uncertainty.

And got to have a bolter - at 100/1 - Elegant Blast especially if the field falls right away. He whacks away ok. Scratched from the KT.
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Comments

  • pikerpiker    404 posts
    ROTS, I thought EB was a girl; I agree that certainly she bears close watching; esp with the top yard she comes from.

    Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited December 2018
    Apologies Elegant Blast. A five year old Blackfriars mare.
    She whacks away ok too!
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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    Mark these words.

    Dark Musket will win a race soon at nice odds. Is $151 for the Perth Cup

    I completely agree with Star Exhibit. Its the early one for me.

    One I was hoping to be sneaky about didn't end up nominating. I was very keen to lob into HABARI, i think it has massive staying potential written all over it from its first up runs. 
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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited December 2018
    Good ole Dark Musket - third in a Kingston Town at 150/1 to Perfect Reflection, fourth in a Perth Cup to Delicacy at 30/1, and fifth to Material Man in 2018 Cup at 150/1.

    He's a ripper! Shaun O'Donnell continues to stick with this guy. Nothing surprises me with Dark Musket, $151 and $38.50 a place, he's one of those horses that's often rough in the betting.

    Like his three consecutive runs last Autumn - third in the Bunbury Cup - second in the Pinjarra Cup - then goes and wins the 3200 metre WA Cup. Typical Dark Musket - not too many WA stayers could achieve that or his overall record.

    H-BOMBER, thefalcon likes this post.

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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited December 2018
    Elegant Blast wasn't whacking away in the Towton Cup...she was zooming home! Don't think 100/1 after that effort.

    Got the job ahead of her but was a good trial for the Cup.
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  • thefalconthefalcon    20,495 posts
    did you cop the run of prying tom???

    jum likes this post.

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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    Yes Prying Tom was a big surprise packet - ran about 5th or 6th.
    Think Galaxy Star will complete the Railway - Cup double. Great run again today.

    H-BOMBER likes this post.

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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    Plenty of 100/1 was available Elegant Blast Tabtouch and after Towton Cup slashed into 14/1. Prying Tom still 50/1 on Bet365.

    Very little eastern states representation - Dal Hariold seemed to have every chance in the Pakenham Cup and just a run.
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  • TiversTivers    7,720 posts
    Not surprising considering they’ve done no good in the leads ups so far.

    How’d they go yesterday ?
    Last
    Second last (import)
    Third last
    And fourth last.

    Maybe, just maybe our racing (top end) is a bit stronger than others give us credit for......

    jum likes this post.

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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited December 2018
    Iconoclasm - 4th last.
    Holy Snow - 3rd last.
    Mr. Sea Wolf - last.

    Owe you a lottery ticket falcon - Achernar Star was beaten at the 600 but still ran 9th which dosent day much for the rest of them.

    Railway Stakes form held up really well - Galaxy Star, Gatting, Material Man 1,2,3 in the Railway and 3, 4, 2 in the KT.

    Prying Tom 5th - his SP was 200/1.
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  • JellJell    1,202 posts
    Tivers said:

    Not surprising considering they’ve done no good in the leads ups so far.

    How’d they go yesterday ?
    Last
    Second last (import)
    Third last
    And fourth last.

    Maybe, just maybe our racing (top end) is a bit stronger than others give us credit for......




    Interesting to note though that the Winterbottom has now gone East for the 4th time in a row.

    Perhaps our sprinters are the ones who are well behind the Eastern States.
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  • paraleticparaletic    3,750 posts
    I wouldnt trade gatting for love nor money leading up into the perth cup.
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  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited December 2018
    Jell said:

    Tivers said:

    Not surprising considering they’ve done no good in the leads ups so far.

    How’d they go yesterday ?
    Last
    Second last (import)
    Third last
    And fourth last.

    Maybe, just maybe our racing (top end) is a bit stronger than others give us credit for......




    Interesting to note though that the Winterbottom has now gone East for the 4th time in a row.

    Perhaps our sprinters are the ones who are well behind the Eastern States.
    It's also probably easier to keep a horse fresh over sprint journeys than it is middle distance/staying horses although the Euros seem to be able to get their stayers to win first up over a trip. Trap For Fools was 2L to Winx and a winner of the Mackinnon-surely good enough form to beat Prying Tom easily at WFA. The Railway & KT is seen as 'last drinks' in terms of G1 races by a lot of Eastern States trainers and their horses are cooked by the time they cross the nullarbor

    Ridersonthestorm33, jum likes this post.

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  • TiversTivers    7,720 posts
    Yep, and their opinion of us is those horses and / or that preparation are enough to beat us - incorrectly.

    therealkramer, jum likes this post.

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  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited December 2018
    @Tivers From the stewards' report:

    MISTER SEA WOLF (IRE) – Raced wide for the majority. Lay inwards in the straight

    Not sure it explains to dramatic drop off in its form(21l last)-it was only 3.25l from the winner in the Railway
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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    Another thing too about Iconoclasm, Mr. Sea Wolf,Peaceful State etc..there no Better Loosen Up, Marwong, Getting Closer or Iko!

    Those previous ES winners of the Railway could have piggy backed horses like the above three to the barrier and still beaten them home.
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  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited December 2018
    @Ridersonthestorm33 The Winterbottom is obviously a stronger race and the fact the good Eastern States horses run in it is proof of that. There's nothing wrong with emerging WA talent winning weak editions of the Railway though. Northerly, Old Comrade, Scales Of Justice(hasn't kicked on but should have done the Railway/KT double, but for the ride) and now Galaxy Star. Sadly, we will never know what heights Elite Belle would have reached over on the east coast =((

    Ridersonthestorm33, jum likes this post.

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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    Absolutely and horses like Gathering and Good Project have acquitted themselves very well. Think Slavonic was another handy eastern stater that won it.
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  • spinkingspinking    4,001 posts
    St Clemens bell Simon Marshall won a railway I think , and don't know if done much after
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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited December 2018
    Snipers Bullet & the Sydneysider Zapparri a couple of others from the eastern seaboard to win it.
    Think Sarshas Choice who won a Railway was from over east too.
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  • spinkingspinking    4,001 posts
    Zapparri might be the one I'm thinking off Riders

    Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

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  • FlandersFlanders    1,409 posts
    What sort of weight does Material Man and Gatting get in the Perth Cup?
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  • thefalconthefalcon    20,495 posts
    57kg??
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  • jumjum    3,582 posts
    Flanders said:

    What sort of weight does Material Man and Gatting get in the Perth Cup?

    And Galaxy Star after winning a Railway
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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited December 2018
    If Galaxy Star, Material Man, Gatting all run, plus previous winner Star Exhibit and a few others who are showing some promise over the journey, it's bad luck that they can't entice 4-5 reasonable quality eastern states horses and then the Cup could regain ( one day ) Group 1 status.
    It's just lacking that eastern states punch.

    For quality and can't believe am saying this ( as a traditionalist ) but 2400 is the way to go - Railway - KT - Perth Cup...just need to continue to lift the standard of the Cup - it has great potential ( again ).
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  • jumjum    3,582 posts
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  • thefalconthefalcon    20,495 posts
    the cup contenders from the east were dismal failures in Saturdays packenham cup...doubt they will be final acceptors. the field will be a normal middle distant raffle...not even worthy of "listed" status.

    VillageKid likes this post.

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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    Material would get 59 wouldnt he?
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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    Material Man 59
    Galaxy Star 58
    Gatting 57

    No need to go any further back
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  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    Galaxy Star at 2400m though? 

    H-BOMBER likes this post.

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