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2019 Perth Cup - early thoughts.

West Australian Racing

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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    A few things punters should take up a class action on - for instance $1.00 money back a place - you can't win - but you can lose - how do they get away with that one ?
    Not a judge in the country wouldn't rule in the punters favour!

    These futures markets adding and subtracting horses only to add them again, also with a market % wise anywhere from 150 to 300% or more! Goodness gracious. Odds on fave scratched and only a ripple in the other odds!

    The word around town from reliable sources ( hmmmm ) is that Action Jackson won't be getting beaten. We'll see.
    +1 -1
  • ChelseaChelsea    1,369 posts
    DamienWyer said:

    H-BOMBER said:

    Why does Queen Bey get a start over Brothers Keeper?



    Why should Brothers Keeper even be considered a start? It's only a 75 rated horse that by running is denigrating a Group 2 further into the ditch.

    RWWA need to get into the business of turning away nominations from poorly performed horses. Nothing under 80 should be getting a start and that is being generous.


    How can you say that Brothers Keeper is a poorly performed horse?
    He has won 3 times this prep and been very unlucky in 3 other starts,
    He finished 2 len behind Mississippi Delta after doing all of the donkey work.
    He has finished 1.5 len behind The Big Show last start after The Big Show lead at a snails pace and Brothers Keeper made a race of it.
    He is an up and coming stayer and the 2400m would have been ideal.
    You should be looking at horses like Itsahymn who has flattered to deceive the whole prep.Has not won a race for 21/2 years and beaten 7len last Saturday
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  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    7,990 posts
    12 months to early then, but 75 rated is still 75 rated. Simply no right to go around. I agree with higher rated horses sadly out of form, but if you applied both conditions, you would have a field of less than ten runners.
    +1 -1
  • RodentRodent    7,471 posts
    DamienWyer said:

    12 months to early then, but 75 rated is still 75 rated. Simply no right to go around. I agree with higher rated horses sadly out of form, but if you applied both conditions, you would have a field of less than ten runners.

    Talent Show won the 2013 Perth Cup (100+) as a 74 rater. It had every right to go around as per the conditions of the race and duly saluted.

    Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited January 2019
    Bet365 have finally re-opened betting on the final field - no respect for Khartoum - $19 and even less love for Star Exhibit - a whopping $34!!

    He's out of form but 33/1 for a former Perth Cup winner and placed in a Group One Doomben Cup seems good odds. On form no way, but could be the blowout.

    The have the alarming drifter The Big Show at $13.
    +1 -1
  • pikerpiker    404 posts
    Over here The Big Show 21 and 5.7 fixed!
    Miss Delta out to 5; Cappo out to 17; Gatting 5 and of course Action 3.4
    Other than Action the other one that will love the distance is Queen Bey at 41.
    +1 -1
  • pikerpiker    404 posts
    Oh and Prying Tom is 17; he should love this trip.
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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited January 2019
    There are only two horses in the race who have previously been placed in the Cup - one of them won and the other third.

    In this Cup field they are 25/1 and 33/1. Amazing.

    Yes the Stars are beginning to align - Star Exhibit & Royal Star.
    Mr. Peters longest two priced runners. Got a suspicous feeling one of them might be thereabouts when the whips are cracking.

    Throw in the only other good Perth Cup record of 4th to Delicacy and 5th to Material Man - Dark Musket and he's 100/1.

    Would not credit in a ''weak'' Perth Cup they'd be 25/1, 33/1 and 100/1.
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited January 2019
    The Big Show & Prize Catch - what a pair ( betting fluctuation wise ).
    Around 20/1 into 8/1 and have since blow'n like billy 'o and back out in some places to 20/1 or better!

    If Khartoum arrives safely got a feeling ( with Victorian support ) will be nowhere near $19 on the day. Look for him as the only eastern stater in the race, to start at under 10/1.
    +1 -1
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    Ridersonthestorm33 said:

    Has very little chance in the Kingston Town but saw a glimpse of a return to form of Star Exhibit in the Railway and as a former Perth Cup winner he might be on the right path again. Currently $13. If he's running on in the KT then those odds will be looking ok.

    The other one that could be value and also at $13 is stablemate Perfect Jewel. Terrific in the Railway Stakes and likewise if runs well, the $13 could be value.
    Whether either get to the Cup is the great uncertainty.

    And got to have a bolter - at 100/1 - Elegant Blast especially if the field falls right away. He whacks away ok. Scratched from the KT.




    First post of the thread
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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    H-BOMBER said:

    Mark these words.


    Dark Musket will win a race soon at nice odds. Is $151 for the Perth Cup

    I completely agree with Star Exhibit. Its the early one for me.

    One I was hoping to be sneaky about didn't end up nominating. I was very keen to lob into HABARI, i think it has massive staying potential written all over it from its first up runs. 



    I liked it early too :(
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  • PCPC    2,265 posts
    $50 each way on Star Exhibit. Thank you very much.

    Ridersonthestorm33, squid69, H-BOMBER, Ohsomodest likes this post.

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  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    7,990 posts
    PC said:

    $50 each way on Star Exhibit. Thank you very much.

    genius
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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    For sure bomber!

    Seemed a big price for a previous winner of the race and don't forget as #2. and a previous winner - thrown in at the weights haha.
    +1 -1
  • VoodooVoodoo    1,373 posts
    How disappointing for Prying Toms connections, taken completely out of the race by the tiring Itsahymn and Khartoum.
    +1 -1
  • thefalconthefalcon    20,495 posts
    itsahymn should not have got a berth..its pharqued!!
    +1 -1
  • RodentRodent    7,471 posts
    Ridersonthestorm33 said:

    Has very little chance in the Kingston Town but saw a glimpse of a return to form of Star Exhibit in the Railway and as a former Perth Cup winner he might be on the right path again. Currently $13. If he's running on in the KT then those odds will be looking ok.

    The other one that could be value and also at $13 is stablemate Perfect Jewel. Terrific in the Railway Stakes and likewise if runs well, the $13 could be value.
    Whether either get to the Cup is the great uncertainty.

    And got to have a bolter - at 100/1 - Elegant Blast especially if the field falls right away. He whacks away ok. Scratched from the KT.

    Great effort to tip Star Exhibit. Imagine taking the $13 "all-in" when you could get $50 on the day. 

    therealkramer likes this post.

    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited January 2019
    Was just thinking that Rodent in regards to the odds....for most of futures betting he hung around the $13 to $16...then suddenly out to $21...then $23...then $26...hmmmm he's starting to drift...then $31...then $34....blowing further to ( and this is a former Cup winner & Group One Doomben Cup runner up ) a "crazy" $41... a few astute punters must have thought that's too good...and he settled back at $34.

    As for futures betting overall, it's the Christmas present for bookmakers that's keeps on giving...what a bonanza for them it is.
    +1 -1
  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited January 2019
    Is it correct that, prior to yesterday, Peter Hall had just one metro winner from 41 starts this season?  :-O


    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    Did Star Exhibit get as high as 50/1 ? Amazing.
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  • SKIDSSKIDS    1,006 posts
    Ridersonthestorm33 said:

    Did Star Exhibit get as high as 50/1 ? Amazing.




    $67 with odd boost on Ladbrokes.
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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited January 2019
    Incredulous. Could say was worth a throw at the stumps ( especially now ).
    Railway run was very good. Had little chance in the KT.

    Cox Stakes - well they were about as interested in that as I am in the Big Bash.
    Goodness gracious hasn't that lost it's steam and some of the commentary - cringe worthy...but that's for another thread!
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    Just reviewing the race again - how big a run Missippippi Delta ? Should nearly have won. Nobody a bigger fan of Chris Parnham than me - but things didn't quite go to plan there. It happens.

    Missippippi, Gatting, Elegant Blast all very good.
    +1 -1
  • troopertrooper    681 posts
    edited January 2019
    Gatting was big
    +1 -1
  • RodentRodent    7,471 posts
    SKIDS said:

    Ridersonthestorm33 said:

    Did Star Exhibit get as high as 50/1 ? Amazing.




    $67 with odd boost on Ladbrokes.
    Serious question. Do you have to be a loser to get odds boost?
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    Agree there Trooper - Gatting was fantastic. The day belonged to Peter Hall - that was a "match winning" ride.

    He made the difference between winning and losing. You make your own luck - and he made it!
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    Did mention a few times - nice little quiet ride out the back in the Cox Stakes for Prize Catch - Star Exhibit he was a bit the same.

    Everybody would remember the old McKinnon Stakes at Flemington, weight for age race lead up into the Melbourne Cup.

    Bart Cummings was a master at the ''quiet run" in the McKinnon - then not so quiet in the Melbourne Cup when it was game on!

    Not suggesting anything untoward of course.

    SLIPPERGOLDEN likes this post.

    +1 -1
  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    7,990 posts
    Just aside from the horses for a moment, what a wonderful result for Peter Hall. I loved the emotion in his voice returning to scale when Brittney asked him what it meant to him and he struggled when he spoke of the loyalty between him and Bob. A very nice insight into what sounds like a genuine respect for each others ability.
    +1 -1
  • TiversTivers    7,720 posts
    edited January 2019
    Ridersonthestorm33 said:

    Agree there Trooper - Gatting was fantastic. The day belonged to Peter Hall - that was a "match winning" ride.

    He made the difference between winning and losing. You make your own luck - and he made it!


    Yep, came from an even wider gate.
    Great ride.

    (Didn’t have to deal with a wall or cerise and white though...)
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,946 posts
    edited January 2019
    Just looking at the the first three hoops home - they've all won the Cup before - at least once.

    Peter Hall.
    Willy Pike.
    Peter Knuckey.

    Can't think now but would that be three Cups to Hally - Black Tom, Delicacy, Star Exhibit.

    Pikey - Real Love and any more...?
    Knuckey - Field Officer ( with about 48kgs! )
    +1 -1
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