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NORTHAM 2/12/21

West Australian Racing
thefalconthefalcon    20,495 posts
West Australian Racing
just glancing thru the card and noticed a B. Kennedy has 4 or 5 rides.
is it an error and A. kennedy is back riding? with a ride for Anne King makes me think it is Alan.
thoughts?
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Comments

  • savethegamesavethegame    3,216 posts
    Ben is back has done 22 trial rides last rode feb 2017-- Wish him well.
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  • RodentRodent    7,472 posts
    edited December 2021
    It's Ben. There was a story how he was on the comeback trail. Been riding at trials for weeks.
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  • thefalconthefalcon    20,495 posts
    thanks, guys..
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  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    May be just coincidence but i see Dmac has tipped both of Rob Gulberti's on top today, not sure RG would be thrilled as he jonah'd the first one and is a strong chance of going 0/2 lol

    R6 Let's Cut Loose should do just that.

    Not the greatest bunch of gallopers you will see but i think Enticing can win the lucky last.
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  • RodentRodent    7,472 posts
    edited December 2021
    Strange price the toppy in race 4. Better than 20s on Betfair. Why?
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  • RodentRodent    7,472 posts
    If you have a maiden ready to race you'll be kicking yourself you're not in race 5. One of the weakest I've seen at Northam.
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  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    The old double whammy, one goes like a busted for W.Pike and the other one gets nutted by the same fella on 1 fresh off 21 months in the paddock  8-|
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  • MuldoonMuldoon    488 posts
    Celtic Court was never headed  @-) , don;t believe what you hear. Blazing Tycoon by how far  :((

    detonator, savethegame likes this post.

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  • Buddy123Buddy123    262 posts
    Ahh yes the afternoon horror matinee..Blaziing Tycoon.. ha.
    Poor thing cantered to the line..

    detonator, savethegame likes this post.

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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    Gee whiz I finally nail a quaddie and I thought the divvy was average for the prices.
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  • GolferGolfer Posts: 1
    If you felt the quaddie was skinny H-Bomber spare a thought for those that snared the Quartet in R5. The pool was 106k the winner paid $10 and it paid $211

    H-BOMBER likes this post.

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  • RodentRodent    7,472 posts
    H-BOMBER said:

    Gee whiz I finally nail a quaddie and I thought the divvy was average for the prices.

    Poor divvy. I got the treble and it paid unders as well.
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  • RodentRodent    7,472 posts
    edited December 2021
    Golfer said:

    If you felt the quaddie was skinny H-Bomber spare a thought for those that snared the Quartet in R5. The pool was 106k the winner paid $10 and it paid $211

    4th fave beat 2nd fave from fave from 3rd fave in a field of 9. Box the 4 favourites for $24. How much did you expect it to pay?
     By my calculations, it paid overs. It paid almost triple the trifecta divvy. What odds would Denzoe have been with the first 3 horses removed from the pool? Answer is odds-on so first 4 should pay less than double the trifecta.

    hash likes this post.

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  • RodentRodent    7,472 posts
    edited December 2021
    I'm very rusty on this stuff but a very very rough calculation based on WA tote odds determining relative chances of the runners, I calculated that the probability of the first 4 horses finishing in that order was roughly 173-1. 
     I don't have a program for it, just scribbling on paper and using a calculator. Horrendous rounding issues but good enough for this exercise.
     If approximately 173-1 is the true odds, getting paid $211 is a pretty good divvy. Obviously the jackpot helped to overcome the rake to some degree but I wouldn't be disappointed with the divvy.

    I used A x B/1-A x C/1-(A+B) x D/1-(A+B+C) where A, B , C and D are the winning chances  of the first 4 horses. I increased the tote prices by 15% to overcome the assumed rake in order to approximate the winning probabilities.
     Hopefully someone who does or used to do this for a living will give a much simpler and more accurate assessment.
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  • thefalconthefalcon    20,495 posts
    ^^ where's carey?

    carey likes this post.

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  • bookieloverbookielover    2,709 posts
    thefalcon said:

    ^^ where's carey?

    Hibernating :D
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  • ArapahoArapaho    395 posts
    Have played Noveltiies all my life, don't think there is a set rule regarding anticipating dividends
    for Quartets or first fours as they are now called, although it doesn't hurt to speculate.

    Size of pool has a big bearing on dividends and I am not saying the bigger the pool the bigger the dividend ,quite the opposite, in some cases large pool sizes attract the more profesional or large punters who invest heavily which would reduced the dividends especially the more favoured runners, but also blowing out the dividend of a rough result.

    Tend to think favoured runners pay overs in small pools as most educated punters dont get involved and you are only playing against the victims (no Disrespect) and mystery players.

    Flexi betting has thrown another spanner into anticipating dividends with punters now getting a percentage of a result by being able to have more combinations for the same investment back in the day.
    Remember, First large Quartet dividend I was fortunate enough to snare was in the 1985.St ledger.
    Never forget the horses Jim's Bonnie Boy,Man of Steel ,Melimar and the odds on Favourite Dual Cidium back in 4th. 

    Was when TAB only had one Quartet per meeting and it was the first time the Quartet was moved from last race to the main race ,with a lot of novelty punters unaware the pool  dropped  around $50,000 to $36900 odd with deductions.

    Luckily I had the only winning ticket,
    Back then,I used to think if only the pool was the normal $85,000 odd ,
    but then again there may have been more winners,
    Who really Knows.

    Rodent likes this post.

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  • RodentRodent    7,472 posts
    edited December 2021
    I got the pool to myself in the last race in a meeting at Belmont in 2002. Future G1 winner True Steel won the race. Collected 91k. Still my biggest ever collect.

    Arapaho likes this post.

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  • careycarey    6,424 posts
    thefalcon said:

    ^^ where's carey?

    looking at plovers......otherwise, just looking.

    i could probably do the theory of the calc, but what's right for here, is wrong for there.

    i can tell arapaho though, that they will get involved anywhere there is pari mutuel.
    well i know they did, not sure about the now.
    i have left that world behind, and am much happier for doing it.


    Arapaho likes this post.

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  • sonnysonny    1,552 posts
    I think Flexies have destroyed the divs..

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  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    8,456 posts
    edited December 2021
    I recall some of my large wins but I also recall the one that got away. A few years back I took a PT quartet and to this day I rarely bet on that novelty let alone bet on the trots but was on a night out with a mate who was a massive punter.

    The night I placed my bet one minute before the off the bet was rejected because the TAB had changed the ticket process. I missed that alert because the TAB had it hidden behind a form guide underneath the newspaper race fields. Cost me 20K 

    Livid and furious just begin to assess my mood. Not funny at the time but maybe the only positive to result from the event was that in anger I finalised my relationship with my then girlfriend.
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