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Ascot Preview, 21st Nov 2015
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Peace For Paris Handicap - Scott Embry
No easy job but I think Dan Morton and Craig Williams can Eclipse the Pike factor in race 1 with former Miller gelding Lunar Eclipse. Drifted like a FIFO Evo in the market first-up and ran a bottler of a race, picks up 1kg in the weights on Paddy's Flat and with a slightly better barrier drawn and natural second-up improvement can definitely win this race. Putting Pike in as the danger on perennial place performer Paddy's Flat with Flying Roar capable of turning the tables on the more fancied Flytego. Flying Roar meets him 2kg better for a length defeat and can improve second-up. Love Flytego as a horse but forced to carry 60kg here makes it a tough task.
8. LUNAR ECLIPSE - 10. PADDY'S FLAT - 2. FLYING ROAR
SUGGESTED BET - 8. LUNAR ECLIPSE $25 x $25
No easy job but I think Dan Morton and Craig Williams can Eclipse the Pike factor in race 1 with former Miller gelding Lunar Eclipse. Drifted like a FIFO Evo in the market first-up and ran a bottler of a race, picks up 1kg in the weights on Paddy's Flat and with a slightly better barrier drawn and natural second-up improvement can definitely win this race. Putting Pike in as the danger on perennial place performer Paddy's Flat with Flying Roar capable of turning the tables on the more fancied Flytego. Flying Roar meets him 2kg better for a length defeat and can improve second-up. Love Flytego as a horse but forced to carry 60kg here makes it a tough task.
8. LUNAR ECLIPSE - 10. PADDY'S FLAT - 2. FLYING ROAR
SUGGESTED BET - 8. LUNAR ECLIPSE $25 x $25
Comments
Liberty Rise is 2 from 2 this preparation and perfectly placed to make that 3 from 3 carrying a mere 54.5kg and drawn perfectly in barrier 5. Should get a tow into the race through the 3 wide line from the 800 and be a very threatening presence down the straight. The speed looks genuine with Tales of Summer and Tiger Red likely to battle it out infront of Bayatorio, Zoetomtaya and Our Finest Moment right on their heels which should allow Turner to ease the Blackfriars mare into the race and unleash her powerful finish over the final 3 furlongs. Little Shadow is flying and the form alongside Neverland is excellent and meets Liberty Rise 2kg better from their last start encounter, however, Liberty Rise did give her wind-burn that day. Zoetomtaya is as consistent as they come and will give backers a mighty sight up on speed.
11. LIBERTY RISE - 6. LITTLE SHADOW - 8. ZOETOMTAYA
SUGGESTED BET - 11. LIBERTY RISE $25 x $25
Think David Harrison has pulled the right reign here scratching Sheidel from the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes and electing to run in the Jungle Mist against the other Mares. Is yet to fully fire this preparation and will need to be at her best to hold out the Cerise and White Juggernaut as they look to win their 100000th WA race this season already. Last time Sheidel and Ideal Image met it was a 3.5 length victory to Sheidel, however, at this encounter there is a 2kg weight swing in favour of W.Pike and Ideal Image. Drawn barrier 2 I expect Sheidel to lead on her ear and can dictate terms which will make it hard for them to run on, so I've got her on top as one of the better bets on the card. Ideal Image is undefeated first-up, 2 from 2, and off a 105 day break looks primed to give the favourite a real run for her money. Beyond those it's a bit of a raffle, they should quinella the race. I've settled on Meteroid, the likely third market favourite who can position up on pace and fill the trifecta spot.
2. SHEIDEL - 4. IDEAL IMAGE - 7. METEOROID
SUGGESTED BET - 2. SHEIDEL $50 x $50
Think David Harrison has pulled the right reign here scratching Sheidel from the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes and electing to run in the Jungle Mist against the other Mares. Is yet to fully fire this preparation and will need to be at her best to hold out the Cerise and White Juggernaut as they look to win their 100000th WA race this season already. Last time Sheidel and Ideal Image met it was a 3.5 length victory to Sheidel, however, at this encounter there is a 2kg weight swing in favour of W.Pike and Ideal Image. Drawn barrier 2 I expect Sheidel to lead on her ear and can dictate terms which will make it hard for them to run on, so I've got her on top as one of the better bets on the card. Ideal Image is undefeated first-up, 2 from 2, and off a 105 day break looks primed to give the favourite a real run for her money. Beyond those it's a bit of a raffle, they should quinella the race. I've settled on Meteroid, the likely third market favourite who can position up on pace and fill the trifecta spot.
2. SHEIDEL - 4. IDEAL IMAGE - 7. METEOROID
SUGGESTED BET - 2. SHEIDEL $50 x $50
W.Pike and Neverland are looking to make it 3 on the bounce this preparation and 6 wins from 8 starts, including 2 Listed Victories if she can win the 2015 Carbine Club Stakes. Her last start win when settling almonst last along the inside and trying to dodge traffic and get to the outside was absolutely sensational, I think many punters probably were looking for their tickets on the ground after the race because her final 100m was simply electric. Should get a soft run from barrier 1 and trusting Pike to get the openings at the right time and storm to another highly impressive victory. Resonates, the galloper Pike jumps off to ride Neverland is the logical danger, a leader who only went down by 1 length first-up in the Group 3 Northerly to Black Heart Bart, that's a good form reference and she could easily lead all the way and win. Fashion Princess was good first-up over an unsuitable distance behind Lucky Street, second-up record is brilliant and she is definitely one for the exotics.
8. NEVERLAND - 7. RESONATES - 9. FASHION PRINCESS (NZ)
SUGGESTED BET - 8. NEVERLAND $50 x $50
Happy to narrow this race down to the 3 horses, Celebrity Dream, Puteri Jewel and Remember Berlin. With the Blinkers added to race gear and drawn barrier 1 I think we can expect Remember Berlin to lead which leaves Puteri Jewel on the outside of it. Pike should get a perfect camp on both of them and has beaten the pair of Miller runners at her only 2 starts. On debut accounted for Remember Berlin by 1 length and second-up beat Puteri Jewel by a half. Meets both gallopers 1kg worse at the weights here but I think she will get a brilliant run behind them and as long as they don't play 'team tactics' that Celebrity Dream will make it 3 from 3. Puteri Jewel, despite Knuckey electing to ride Remember Berlin, as the second choice with the stabltemate in third. Think they are the superior form lines to Delicate Miss and Mystic Maid. Senso the forgotten horse who could bob up at artificially juicy odds.
10. CELEBRITY DREAM (NZ) - 9. PUTERI JEWEL - 5. REMEMBER BERLIN
SUGGESTED BET - 10. CELEBRITY DREAM (NZ) $50 x $50
I've said all along that I think the fillies form is far superior to that of the colts and geldings. I'll stick with that assessment and tip Blackwood, Arcadia Dream and Showy Chloe as the on topers. Blackwood has been my Guineas selection for weeks and I probably jumped the gun by taking her in the All-In market at $6 about a month ago. After her Burgess Queen win I was rubbing my hands together as she firmed into $3.20 before looking flat and running third to the Peters Pair Perfect Reflection (Kingston Town favourite) and Arcadia Dream (Guineas Favourite). Drawn horribly in barrier 13 my confidence is waxing and waning but I'll stick with her to bounce back. Arcadia Dream hardest to beat after that barnstorming run in the Champion Fillies and Show Chloe to appreciate a 3.5kg drop back to 54.5 after lumping weight in her only 2 starts this preparation. Labelling The Cobbla as the best of the geldings at odds.
14. BLACKWOOD - 15. ARCADIA DREAM - 13. SHOWY CHLOE
SUGGESTED BET - 14. BLACKWOOD $25 x $25
There should be a pretty hot top end tempo set by Buffering, Dawn Approach, Madassa and Lucky Street all looking to take up forward positions from wide gates with Liberty's Gem and Cool Trade likely to kick up underneath them and make them work for the lead. Hoping to see a few sparks fly and atleast one horse take on Eastern States invaider Buffering, winner of over $5 000 000 in stakes money. I think Waterman's Bay can settle towards the rear alongside, first-up specialists Shining Knight and Sujet. They will form 3 of my top 4. Never thought I would say it but Lucky Street looks extremely well placed on the 53.5kg as a 3 year old colt to potentially take out Group 1 success and pave his way to WA Stud Duties. Those 4 gallopers are my top 4. I have Waterman's Bay on top, a big improver second-up after a couple of minor hiccups this preparation. Lucky Street second, if McGruddy can get across from barrier 12 he is a genuine threat, meets Silverstream 5kg better for a shorthead defeat. Shining Knight for third, 3 wins from 5 starts first-up and ran an absolute cracker in the 2014 Winterbottom. Sujet in for fourth as a mad roughie.
3. WATERMANS BAY - 16. LUCKY STREET - 4. SHINING KNIGHT
I am going with 2014 Perth Cup winner Real Love to beat another Cerise and White horse, Delicacy in the $1 Million Group 1 Railway Stakes of 2015. Last year's winner, the late Elite Belle wore Cerise and White and I think the winner this year will also wear the WA State of Origin Silks. Going with Damien Oliver and Real Love on top, thought her grinding win over 1400m first-up was excellent and dropping 4kg to a luxurious 54 will be to her favour. Second-up record is 2 from 2 and I think over this distance she might just have a touch of speed which Delicacy lacks. If Oliver can settle a length or two closer to the speed than Delicacy then Real Love can hold her out. Genuinely expecting Oliver and Pike fight it out in Cerise and White to the finish with Delicacy a deserving favourite, meeting Black Heart Bart 2kg better at the weights over a more suitable distance for her after suffering a 0.8 length defeat first-up after a minor hoof issue. Fuchsia Bandana the one who appeals at odds, should get the softest of runs along the fence either leading or box-seating, well worth an eachway flutter at big odds.
5. REAL LOVE - 3. DELICACY - 4. FUCHSIA BANDANA
SUGGESTED BET - 5. REAL LOVE $30 x $70
Saving the best for last and going with my absolute favourite horse of all time in the 9 year old Ustinov Gelding Ask Me Nicely. Only won 2 career races at Ascot and drawn in barrier 13 but should be able to sit three deep with cover for the entire journey and does excel of this type of 'mini prep'. Ran a cracking second in the 1400m Farnley behind Wink and a Nod and then stepped straight up to 2100m to win the Boulder Cup. After a quick freshen-up ran over 1500m in the Peters last week and steps up to 2100m here. Has a career top 3 record of 41% which is incredible for a horse who is heading out for start number 92 and Shaun O'Donnell rides the grey to perfection. I think there are a lot of horses here who will be underdone and Kersley always has the old fella right to go. Putting him on top as the Get Out Stakes special. Bedamijo is one who could surprise a few of the higher rated fancies, skipped away at the top of the home straight last start and should get another cosy run up on the speed. Worth including at odds. Raising Dubai is well weighted at 54kg and it's not often that Peter Hall abandons Adam Durrant so expecting a big showing.
4. ASK ME NICELY (NZ) - 8. BEDAMIJO - 12. RAISING DUBAI
SUGGESTED BET - 4. ASK ME NICELY (NZ) $15 x $35
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Butters first ever tips below;
race 1 - Lord Conrad
race 2 - thunderclap newman
race 3 - zonte
race 4 - sireeze
race 5 - senso
race 6 - who dat singa
race 7 - sujet
race 8 - bass straight (way overs at 101-1)
race 9 - drive east
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Will get across from wide gate,has had a faultless preparation.all ifs and buts with all of the fillies
Can they back up in the heat again?
Showy Chloe has missed work,and even though she won the sires as a 2 yo very impressively she only beat a very average field, wtf blinkers?
Blackwood very average last start in the heat can she back up? Not helped by dumping Lucy at trackwork this morning due to saddle slipping
Arcadia Dream another who backs up in the heat, she gets herself into all sorts of problems in small fields,what is she going to be like in a 16 horse field with a wide gate?
Scott recons the Cobbla is the best male at odds,was 3 wide on Man Bookers back who 'faced the breeze' in the 3 wide line and beat it by over 2 length.Man Booker receives 1.5 kg off him in the Guineas
My 4 for the Guineas Manbooker,London Line,He's our Rokkii, and Showy Chloe as the best of the fillies.
I have no doubt that Man Booker is crying out for the 1600 m.
The Freohitman is on money,so am I at 26's 21's and 11's
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From that gate Man Booker could be posted 3 wide the trip again if it tries to look for a handy position and will become that horse that always has excuses. If it settles in the back half of the field it will be another case of too little too late. I think it needs luck to get passed London Line who will probably be sitting 3 back off the fence waiting to pounce at the corner, will also enjoy the mile.
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^^^^^^^^^^ spoken like a true owner ^^^^^^^^^^^