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GP 20/12/2013
Harness & Greyhounds
byfordboi23
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Here is my in depth look, do this mainly for myself to really think about the races but also a couple of mates as well. You can tell me sat morning if I'm a mug or not!
R1: Bit of a tough one to start with. I think No1 Beautiful Night will have the speed to hold up, she’s racing poorly at the moment but is a lot better than that, tough for her to turn it around in a week though. 3 Courage On Fire is racing well, she’ll have a little crack for the top but if she can’t get it she will quickly look for a sit. That should be on the back of 4 Arch On Fire, she will appreciate this class and if she’s taken improvement from her first 2 runs she will be hard to beat. 5&6 might look to push forward early, if it’s the 5 I think it will get caught 3 deep. Hoylakes First Lady may get to the breeze but I more expect it to be leading up the 3 deep line at the 1200m, she is racing really well. I will stick with No10 Arousing again. She was driven for luck last week and didn’t get it but did run well. I’m hopeful more than confident that they will drive her more aggressively this week after seeing how she went last week. I think she has the chance to be the one getting the 3 deep trail and finishing over the top of them. 12 Maggies Mystery was good last week and if they drive Arousing for luck again this could be a carbon copy of last week’s victory. Surprised Dylan Edgerton-Green has chosen to drive the 9 ahead of the 10, you’d want to try to keep drives for the Oliveri stable IMO but drivers often get it wrong.
Tri: 10,12/3,4,6,10,12/1,3,4,6,8,10,12 100% costs $40. EW Arousing, drive it positively!
R2: Im a fan of No1 Grand Cru, particularly over this distance. I just don’t know enough about the newcomer 4 Shnappy. It has a good win record although it must be at a low class because it hasn’t won a lot of prize money, form reads pretty av but did run an excellent time at a recent trial. That makes me think it might put a bit of pressure on Grand Cru, possibly too much. If that’s the case No7 Vapour will be sitting out the back just flying all over them. On its times and just how it went to the line last start he looks pretty good. The only thing I can see beating him is if Grand Cru gets away with a bit because he will settle and can run home well but Vapour should be too good. All just depends on the price.I’ll sit out this one.
R3: No4 Hez On Fire was very good to me in the Nugget, he’s going to race through to fast class. 1 Im Terrific has the speed to lead and the bonds horses always grow a leg in front. I see Hez On Fire being in the breeze and while these two are the stand outs I find in this situation Brown can sometimes drive to just beat the one horse and set it up for something else. 8 Soho Highroller has disappointed me at his last two but prior to that was racing very well, leaders back doing no work I’ll give him one more chance. 2 Rocky Marciano is the other horse who will get the good sit and I think one of these two will fight it out in a mini upset. 9 Heez Orl Black is meant to be great with a sit, Atomic Chip run past it last week so that isn’t good but I will give it one more chance also. If I knew who was going to be three back the pegs I’d give it good place claims too, maybe Our Amazing Art.
EW No8 Soho Highroller. Tri: 2,8/1,2,4,8/1,2,4,8,9,11. 100% costs $24.
R4: No1 Taiaha had to really burn early to keep the top last start and as a result dropped right out, I don’t see that pressure here and I think can turn it around. Asian Courage will probably start fav, while it looks a good draw I think it will actually have the horse to far forward and DeCampo will have to go before you really want to on this horse so as not to risk being in a pocket. Cool Johny’s last win was good but this is a different race, no lead for him here. 5 Bronze Seekers form reads terrible but all he needs is the right run into one of these and he could easily win one. 8 Jar Zinyo will get the lovely run and does have a win over Dreadlock Rockstar in similar circumstances. 12 Northview Punter is the class dropper, he may get a nice trail into it if he goes first and Asian Courage comes out in front of him, Ballas Arockstar is still racing well but hasn’t had the run it needs to be in the finish lately and Rojen Cruz can run on with some luck.
FF: 1,5/8/1,2,5,12/1,2,4,5,6,7,9,12 100% costs $36 then rotate the 8 through for a small %. Small EW % Bronze Seeker.
R5: No1 Living On The Interest ran an average race last week, I don’t think he’s the best horse when it comes to racing in a field. He’s far better in front and should win this, almost in a no contest. 8 Hokonui Ben is not quite racing at his best but should get the run through on his back and be in the finish. I think 5 Rocket Reign has come back well, he could even have a little shot at flying the start. Otherwise I don’t really know where he gets to but I give him a place chance at odds. With the 1 and 8 dictating the market and virtually no chance of missing it’s not really a betting race.
Very small win and place bet no5 Rocket Reign at mad odds.
R6: Justin Prentice is flying at the moment as a trainer, every starter he has is really putting in. I see Salliwood holding up from Bobby Teal early. There could be a little charge around to try and get the top but I think Saliwood may hold up for a while as she has at her last two and run well then later hand up to No7 Braemoor. Even if it has to breeze or be the first horse 3 wide I think it will be in the finish. Salliwood is fool proof and will also definitely be in the finish. Provided Bobby Teal doesn’t go silly early trying to find the front it can be dangerous leaders back/ 3 back doing no work. J Walker was great first up but there is a bit more class around him this time, he may get the right run into again but last week was definitely the week to back him. Gday Mate continues to race well and these conditions suit and Gate Bender was absolutely massive first up but like J Walker there is a bit more class around him in this race and the fact he missed away a bit could put a lot of good horses in front of him. This is a fantastic race as the stands always are IMO.
EW No7 Braemoor. Tri:7/1,3/1,3,4,6,8,9 100% costs $10 then swap 2nd& 3rd around. Could do similar FF as well but wouldn’t want to start having too much on in tough race.
R7: From the draw Toretto is going to go around deservingly short in this race. There doesn’t look like any challengers for the lead early. Famous Alchemist is a horse that will want a sit but I see her kicking through a bit early as if she lets either of the 3 or 4 cross early she’ll get pushed to far back. I originally had 9 Hez The Bart Man working through and then moving around to the breeze where I thought he’d run a terrific race. Sounds like the Halls will send The Ragpickers Dream forward to try and get the breeze and have the stable completely dominate the race. Think this might backfire as it could put a bit of speed into the race with it is trying to work around the 3&4 making things even better for The Bartman. He’s an under rated horse, when he gets the chance to sit this close (should be 1 by 2) he is very dangerous. Red Salute will get a lovely run along the fence which will see him in the finish. Sensational Gabby is getting better with each run, if they can get her pulling under control she becomes a chance even from back in the field. Sanjaya flew home last week but I don’t know where he gets to from 7, Lucie Boshier may shoot straight to the pegs which gives her FF claims. The rest of them are all talented horses but I find it hard to see them winning with how the race will be run.
EW No7 Hez The Bart Man. FF:9/1,8,11/1,2,8,10,11/1,2,8,10,11 100% costs $36 for small %, hard to narrow down 4th and again don’t want to much on the bartman in a tough race, getting the 1 beat it will pay enough anyhow.
R8: Interesting claimer with a few additions from last week. They’ve notified that they will be riving 1 Artorious forward tonight, not sure but I don’t think he will have enough gate speed to drive him forward with!. Heavens Delight led last week and went poorly so I’d think it will probably go back at the start. Talk it up has some early speed but if they want to go forward with the stable mate I can’t see them attempting to cross, they normally drive him quiet anyhow. The more I look at it the more I think No5 Tee Pee Village can speed across early and be very hard to beat, if he can’t get the top, which I think he can he will still have options from the breeze and can win from there. Wrongly Accused will probably want to work forward but isn’t racing in a purple patch, This Time Dylan will lead up the 3 wide line followed by Marooned, they will be the dangers again though I think it will be that but harder for Marooned this week as he will have to maintain a longer sprint.
EW 5 Tee Pee Village.
The last two races I will leave alone.
Quad: 1/1,5/3,6,7,8/1,8,9 100% costs $24. Then 8,12/1,5/3,6,7,8/1,8,9 100% costs $48 for a smaller %.
trooper likes this post.
thats a great write up , will take a look at it and see how you go and let you know :)
Like Flyalong Falcon in the second each way. I think the 1 and 4 could tear at each other.
AC leader and Cool Johnny outside leader? Taiaha behind leader. Zinyo 3 backs.
After all that
Far too early.
I agree TSS it was strange to see that happening
Not my greatest night but hopefully some of my comments were useful. Arousing driven quietly again! I'll have to sack it know so may be the time to get on. A few strange drives during the evening with only questions of the horses but not the drives which is annoying to say the least. Courage On Fire was completely over driven, fair enough to go forward at the start but to pull out again with 1000m to go is completely foreign to how the horse has been driven in the past and not surprisingly the little horse spat it!
As mentioned here the market suggested Asian Courage would get the lead, don't know if there was any mention of different driving tactics??? Wasn't on course and couldn't watch live this week. Again this is completely foreign to how the horse has performed best, admittedly it never really has had the chance to be driven like that so I don't mind given it's form give it a go but I never though running along out in front would suit the horse, back to the suck and kick for it. Horse has done well to win the amount of races it has I think, with the right runs it will get back to it's best.
The stand was a cracker again, bring back at least another stand a night I say! You can get a price on your thought and they are always interesting races, all they have to do is make sure the horses starting in them are actually schooled up to get away not jut one jump out and go for 200 yards at byford, at least a couple.
The Bartman galloping hurt me.
Heavens Delight's effort not a good look. It led and ran poorly the week before then comes out and runs it even harder this week and runs even worse, taking out a danger behind it while the stable mate sits back. Reminds me a bit of what the Bond stable and in particular M Robinson got in trouble for a while back yet when the shoe is on the other foot nothing. Might be time for Heavens Delight to head to Adelaide.
Just on M Roboinson, he is doing a fantastic job with his couple of horses, don't know if its less pressure on driving his own in the country but his driving has improved ten fold.
Onwards and upwards, 10 more winners this Friday. The Prentice family stockings must be a lot fuller than they were looking to be a month ago!