1300m at Northam-not all are equal

Rodent · May 2021

Top is race 2 1300m and the bottom is race 9 1300m. Notice any difference? No wonder they broke the track record in race 9. Pretty pathetic really.

Thunderstruck · May 2021

How much difference u reckon mate 20m? more? pisspoor and amateurish indeed.

Rodent · May 2021

Roughly 3 lengths which is about half a second in time. They broke the record by 0.26 seconds. No mention of anything in the stewards report. Not good enough.

Rodent · May 2021

Near enough is good enough obviously.

Race 1 1400m

Race 6 1400m

curmudgeon · May 2021

Soft ground where the tractors pulls off after recent rain ?

SLIPPERGOLDEN · May 2021

Well spotted Rodent. From now races at Northam will be classified as ABOUT 1300 Metres

Rodent · May 2021

curmudgeon said:
Soft ground where the tractors pulls off after recent rain ?

If that were the case then it should be mentioned. It's very important when assessing form. You don't want people to lose confidence in what they are betting on.

hash · May 2021

Maybe the angle of the camera positioned changed?
If the shots you have were taken on an angle further back around that would make it look like the gaps between the gates and the trees you’re lining up would be different

Precision1 · May 2021

I thought that too but it’s the red part of the running rail that gives it away particularly the 1300m ones, I assume this is what the use to mark where the gates should be. So unless that has been moved or the rail had to be moved out during the meeting both of which seem unlikely then the distances are incorrect

detonator · May 2021

If 20m makes a difference in doing form over 1300 at Northam then your better than me.

Do you get also ring the BOM to get the wind speed and direction 1 min before jump time.

How about getting your course contact to walk the track with a penetrometer prior to jumping.

What if certain jockeys look for better going 8 metres off the rail so they naturally cover more ground which offsets the 20m that all horses are faced with.

And again...we are talking Northam, not Randwick and the Everest.

:-B

Rodent · May 2021

detonator said:
If 20m makes a difference in doing form over 1300 at Northam then your better than me.
Do you get also ring the BOM to get the wind speed and direction 1 min before jump time.
How about getting your course contact to walk the track with a penetrometer prior to jumping.
What if certain jockeys look for better going 8 metres off the rail so they naturally cover more ground which offsets the 20m that all horses are faced with.
And again...we are talking Northam, not Randwick and the Everest.

:-B

If two races are run at the same tempo over the same distance on the same day and one field runs 3 lengths faster than the other, then that is significant. If you don't think it is, then you're wrong.

detonator · May 2021

That happens every day on every racecourse in the world. Not sure how that affects your bet on one particular race ? Considering all the factors that can affect times in a certain race. Racing lane, jockey vigour, timing of run, wind exposure vs cover, how quickly it jumps, whether it’s trying or just having a run and the list goes on. Not sure 20m shorter or longer s affects your betting strategy ? Maybe it does?

Reckon your on your own if that is the case.

carey · May 2021

detonator said:
That happens every day on every racecourse in the world. Not sure how that affects your bet on one particular race ? Considering all the factors that can affect times in a certain race. Racing lane, jockey vigour, timing of run, wind exposure vs cover, how quickly it jumps, whether it’s trying or just having a run and the list goes on. Not sure 20m shorter or longer s affects your betting strategy ? Maybe it does?
Reckon your on your own if that is the case.

if they can judge to the nearest micron at the end, then they should endeavour to have that same precision at the start.

and who is to say that it would in no way effect the finish of the race?

ALL of your reasons are irrelevant.

for self, i was thinking of resuming wa, and have been working hard for a month or so in preparation, but then i find the accuracy issues the same as they were last time.

i knew accuracy was never an important issue for wa powers that be, but unfortunately i had forgotten, until i started doing things with the data, and the same old nonsense keeps popping up.

detonator · May 2021

carey said:

detonator said:
That happens every day on every racecourse in the world. Not sure how that affects your bet on one particular race ? Considering all the factors that can affect times in a certain race. Racing lane, jockey vigour, timing of run, wind exposure vs cover, how quickly it jumps, whether it’s trying or just having a run and the list goes on. Not sure 20m shorter or longer s affects your betting strategy ? Maybe it does?
Reckon your on your own if that is the case.

if they can judge to the nearest micron at the end, then they should endeavour to have that same precision at the start.

and who is to say that it would in no way effect the finish of the race?

ALL of your reasons are irrelevant.

for self, i was thinking of resuming wa, and have been working hard for a month or so in preparation, but then i find the accuracy issues the same as they were last time.

i knew accuracy was never an important issue for wa powers that be, but unfortunately i had forgotten, until i started doing things with the data, and the same old nonsense keeps popping up.

Dumb argument Carey. If your doing form around a horse running 1300m and factoring in 1320m as an extra consideration at Northam then you need to make more valuable use of your time. @-)

Rodent · May 2021

Popcorn ready...

carey · May 2021

detonator said:

carey said:

detonator said:
That happens every day on every racecourse in the world. Not sure how that affects your bet on one particular race ? Considering all the factors that can affect times in a certain race. Racing lane, jockey vigour, timing of run, wind exposure vs cover, how quickly it jumps, whether it’s trying or just having a run and the list goes on. Not sure 20m shorter or longer s affects your betting strategy ? Maybe it does?
Reckon your on your own if that is the case.

if they can judge to the nearest micron at the end, then they should endeavour to have that same precision at the start.

and who is to say that it would in no way effect the finish of the race?

ALL of your reasons are irrelevant.

for self, i was thinking of resuming wa, and have been working hard for a month or so in preparation, but then i find the accuracy issues the same as they were last time.

i knew accuracy was never an important issue for wa powers that be, but unfortunately i had forgotten, until i started doing things with the data, and the same old nonsense keeps popping up.
Dumb argument Carey. If your doing form around a horse running 1300m and factoring in 1320m as an extra consideration at Northam then you need to make more valuable use of your time. @-)

i don't 'do' form, nor was i referring this race specifically.

what i 'do' want is accurate data, as data is the key to everything as you don't seem to realise.

as for my time, you are probably correct in that i am an idiot to consider returning to wa for something to do.

detonator · May 2021

Popcorn haha.

If they have moved the starting stalls for safety concerns or getting the horses to jump from a decent surface then so what.

My last word on this topic.....NORTHAM.

carey · May 2021

detonator said:
Popcorn haha.
If they have moved the starting stalls for safety concerns or getting the horses to jump from a decent surface then so what.
My last word on this topic.....NORTHAM.

the 'popcorn' was aimed at me, rather than you.

the chances that the gates were moved for the reasons you state though, are buckley's and none.

and if they were, then they should say so, and give the actual race distance..

truth be, for every error that somebody finds, there is probably a dozen not spotted.

carey · May 2021

in fact most of my work in trying to get going in wa again, is writing routines to find all those errors, but there will still be lots that i miss for various reasons.

Nevershowsurprise · May 2021

carey said:

detonator said:

carey said:

detonator said:
That happens every day on every racecourse in the world. Not sure how that affects your bet on one particular race ? Considering all the factors that can affect times in a certain race. Racing lane, jockey vigour, timing of run, wind exposure vs cover, how quickly it jumps, whether it’s trying or just having a run and the list goes on. Not sure 20m shorter or longer s affects your betting strategy ? Maybe it does?
Reckon your on your own if that is the case.

if they can judge to the nearest micron at the end, then they should endeavour to have that same precision at the start.

and who is to say that it would in no way effect the finish of the race?

ALL of your reasons are irrelevant.

for self, i was thinking of resuming wa, and have been working hard for a month or so in preparation, but then i find the accuracy issues the same as they were last time.

i knew accuracy was never an important issue for wa powers that be, but unfortunately i had forgotten, until i started doing things with the data, and the same old nonsense keeps popping up.
Dumb argument Carey. If your doing form around a horse running 1300m and factoring in 1320m as an extra consideration at Northam then you need to make more valuable use of your time. @-)
i don't 'do' form, nor was i referring this race specifically.
what i 'do' want is accurate data, as data is the key to everything as you don't seem to realise.
as for my time, you are probably correct in that i am an idiot to consider returning to wa for something to do.

Have you found any significant variance with your regression modelling since you last did WA Carey? Would be an interesting set of numbers.

carey · May 2021

i have started from scratch basically.

have recycled some of my code though.

will be a long time before i am ready to make a model, if i do decide to persist.

i am finding more errors now than when i was last at it a few years back, so i may be wasting my time, as i am not prepared to do the amount of work i once did fixing those errors.

i basically want it all in auto mode.

if i can't do that then i won't bother, as i don't need the money, it's just that i got the betting urge again for some reason

Nevershowsurprise · May 2021

For sure, auto mode is ideal. When assessing risk how does the MSE fair historically in WA compared to say a Melbourne or HK? Does the smaller pool of horses offset the errors to an extent that you’re finding in the other data in WA?

carey · May 2021

Nevershowsurprise said:
For sure, auto mode is ideal. When assessing risk how does the MSE fair historically in WA compared to say a Melbourne or HK? Does the smaller pool of horses offset the errors to an extent that you’re finding in the other data in WA?

i think you are mistaking me as somebody adept at statistics, whereas i am only a pretender at it.

that was a job for other people.

i am though good at finding the factors to be modelled for the modellers, and i like to keep myself busy so that I don't seize up from inactivity.

the answer is that i had little trouble winning in wa when it was last my interest, so i guess that is why.

and because there is not racing every five seconds, so that it is manageable.

i would only be interested in places where the workload is not too big for one person.

i already have an income from racing, but i have nothing to do with its day to day operations these days.

i have models for hk, but they are probably not good enough to overcome the pari mutuel rake.

although i have not tried, and the only other option is citibet, which i am against because they are non contributors.......although i was tempted.

maybe i just want to see if i can still do it, even if on a very small scale.

thefalcon · May 2021

scratch the itch, carey. it won't just go away...

G'day Punter!

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