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Belmont - Birthday Stakes Meeting

West Australian Racing
TheDivaTheDiva    13,248 posts
edited November -1 West Australian Racing
Tips, Comments whatever - post em here
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Comments

  • TiversTivers    7,720 posts
    Expect some scratchings :
    - Rail at TRUE today (8 races on it)
    - Rail at same TRUE position Saturday (9 races on same patch of turf 2 days later)
    - Birthday Stakes race 8 (7 previous races that day on same patch of turf)
    - It's raining
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  • bartfargbartfarg    667 posts
    r u running Tivers?
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  • TheDivaTheDiva    13,248 posts
    Im hoping the rain stops before the meeting today gets underway. The forecast is for just a few showers over the next 3 days.

    Past history dictates that Belmont is most biased (excuse the grammar) when the rail first shifts to the true and plays a lot better when the second meeting is held in the same position.

    I dont mind what they have done is this instance but only time will tell if they got it right I suppose.
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  • TiversTivers    7,720 posts
    Subject to inspection of the track.
    As per my points above though, every chance that inspection will not be fruitful :(
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  • bartfargbartfarg    667 posts
    Tivers - If you didn't run, would you then have to wait for 1400m Northerly at Ascot first up or the 1000m Open Sprint at belmont next week and cop 60kgs?

    Lets hope Ascot doesn't get too much early rain for their opening meetings either.
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  • TiversTivers    7,720 posts
    Let's hope it just stops raining now as Della says !!! :)
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  • lordwaterlordwater    1,127 posts
    Fim Maru-Megatic-Do you DARE.
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  • rompzrompz    206 posts
    grasspatch girl could give a good show one of the best mares racing in the west , always has a big weight but still is there at the finish
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  • barrellbarrell    140 posts
    AGREE ROMPZ BUT LIKE KENSYL BAY 3 LENGHT BETTER HORSE AT ASCOT
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  • golosgolos    122 posts
    raw metal. could get back and then come around them.
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  • octaviusoctavius    2,290 posts
    Seriously, does anybody really care about the Birthday Stakes this weekend?

    Surely it is just going to play a cameo roll to THE MIGHTY PHAROAH!!!

    There will be no more excuses this weekend, he will treat them with contempt.

    If he doesn't win on Saturday I will never mention his name on this board again and will chop him up into little pieces and feed him to my goldfish.

    Put your money on the nose...he'll win by more than 3 lengths.

    WORD.
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  • TheDivaTheDiva    13,248 posts
    Early TAB Market

    UNIVERSAL RULER 35603 3.50 1.62 $ $
    MEGATIC 35601 5.00 2.00 $ $
    CLASSY NUGGET 35607 5.00 2.00 $ $
    GRASSPATCH GIRL 35602 10.00 3.25 $ $
    FIM MARU 35606 10.00 3.25 $ $
    HARTLEYS DREAM 35604 15.00 4.50 $ $
    RAW METAL 35609 15.00 4.50 $ $
    SOLIDWICKEDCRUEL 35615 15.00 4.50 $ $
    NOBLE STEED 35605 17.00 5.00 $ $
    SURPRISE IMPACT 35616 17.00 5.00 $ $
    I COMMAND 35608 21.00 6.00 $ $
    BEAT THE STORM 35610 31.00 8.50 $ $
    DOYOUDARE 35612 31.00 8.50 $ $
    ANNAS CHOICE 35611 41.00 11.00 $ $
    LORD BAUMAY 35614 51.00 13.50 $ $
    DRESS SUIT 35613 101.00 26.00 $ $
    WIRE DETONATOR (1E) 35617 101.00 26.00 $ $
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  • octaviusoctavius    2,290 posts
    Solidwickedcruel could steal this one up front. Will be fit and 1200 is his thing. EW at good odds.
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  • MightAndPowerMightAndPower    4,148 posts
    The nugget could give it a nudge too,looks a good race in the making.

    Octavius,pump him mate....if you dont then nobody else will :wink: GO HENRY... 8)
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  • TheDivaTheDiva    13,248 posts
    GoodLuck Octavius - just finished compiling my ratings, have The Pharoah winning it by a long head :shock:

    If I was a bookie on saturday I would be laying Megatic bigtime at $5 - wont be taking it in my quaddie thats for sure.

    I have Universal Ruler my top pick but at $3.50 it looks a bit skinny.
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  • TiversTivers    7,720 posts
    Yeah, everyone get on The Pharoah............let's see how short we can get him !!! :lol:

    Sorry Occy ;)
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  • octaviusoctavius    2,290 posts
    If he runs straight he wins this easily, unfortunately he has mastered the craft of laying in...

    Runs straight he wins by 3 lengths.

    Lays in he wins by a neck.

    And yes MnP if I don't pump him nobody will and lets face it he needs all the fans he can get to break this run of placings...

    He is still only a winner at Northam...lol
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  • TiversTivers    7,720 posts
    edited October 2008
    Maybe we should put him and Friartruck in a paddock together and sell tickets !!! :lol:
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  • octaviusoctavius    2,290 posts
    Good idea Tivers, free agistment when he's spelling and a little bit of extra money on the side.

    PM me the address and I'll send him your way after he wins the Railway.

    Which reminds me I need to find a bookie this weekend to take my bet before he is slashed into favoritism for the big one.
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  • octaviusoctavius    2,290 posts
    Seems I'm not the only one pumping him up either...

    He is on the front cover of the TABFORM today.
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  • MightAndPowerMightAndPower    4,148 posts
    said:

    Seems I'm not the only one pumping him up either...

    He is on the front cover of the TABFORM today.

    well done,is a cult horse i reckon..not sure if its the name or what but it isnt a bad thing(better if he wins tomorrow,which he will!!)

    i forgot to mention fim maru in the feature race,reckon he could be rattling home late in the race also.
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  • TheDivaTheDiva    13,248 posts
    Interesting Birthday Stales stats

    In last 5 runnings only one winner has started under $9.

    Last 8 winners - 6 have drawn gate 4 or inside.

    Storm Shot won in 2002 - had another 9 starts didnt win.
    Cento won in 2003 - won the Ruabon next start before another 20 starts without a win
    Fair Alert won in 2004 - only had 4 more starts after for one 3rd
    Legend Express won in 2005 - 50 starts later has won just 2 more races
    Local Legend won in 2006 - another 28 starts later hasnt won another race
    West River Charley won in 2007 - has had 6 starts since for only a 3rd and 5 unplaced runs.

    So last 6 winners at present time since winning have had 117 starts for 3 wins.
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  • ColdyColdy    1,720 posts
    Will be on Megatic, will be wanting $6.00 . Out to $5.50 on Sportsbet atm . Dangers:Universal Ruler & Noble Steed.
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  • darkshinesdarkshines    2,837 posts
    It's a deadset two horse race if they are right. If they're not, who knows.

    Megatic was off his game all last prep. As I've said many times, I don't think Uni is as good as many think he is, but that is more than enough to account for this lot.
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  • thedrinkerthedrinker    58 posts
    classy nugget racing too well should win then its time to go shopping...mmm...abbotsford invalid stout...
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  • TorpedoPuntTorpedoPunt    1,891 posts
    This is one of the best fields I have seen in recent memory!
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  • NortherlyNortherly    251 posts
    said:

    Interesting Birthday Stales stats

    In last 5 runnings only one winner has started under $9.

    Last 8 winners - 6 have drawn gate 4 or inside.

    So last 6 winners at present time since winning have had 117 starts for 3 wins.

    You need to get another hobby!! :lol: :lol:
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  • TheDivaTheDiva    13,248 posts
    said:

    said:

    Interesting Birthday Stales stats

    In last 5 runnings only one winner has started under $9.

    Last 8 winners - 6 have drawn gate 4 or inside.

    So last 6 winners at present time since winning have had 117 starts for 3 wins.

    You need to get anoher hobby!! :lol: :lol:
    Past history of major races can often help identify winners - has helped me out on many occasions.

    Off those stats would one be inclined to select Hartleys Dream.
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  • BlakeBlake    8,176 posts
    not really keen to spot one, will be having a first four but SWC eachway for me. wish it was ascot would bemore confident. i know much tougher here but has super second up record, 53, drawn an alley and i've always been a fan he's been good to me.
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  • TheDivaTheDiva    13,248 posts
    Market Moves Tab Sportsbet

    UNIVERSAL RULER 35603 3.50 1.62 $ $.........out to $3.80
    MEGATIC 35601 5.00 2.00 $ $ ....... out to $5.50
    CLASSY NUGGET 35607 5.00 2.00 $ $ ...... out to $7.00
    GRASSPATCH GIRL 35602 10.00 3.25 $ $ ...... out to $11
    FIM MARU 35606 10.00 3.25 $ $ ...... out to $11
    HARTLEYS DREAM 35604 15.00 4.50 $ $ ...... out to $21
    RAW METAL 35609 15.00 4.50 $ $ ....... out to $21
    SOLIDWICKEDCRUEL 35615 15.00 4.50 $ $ ..... into $12
    NOBLE STEED 35605 17.00 5.00 $ $ ...... out to $21
    SURPRISE IMPACT 35616 17.00 5.00 $ $ ...... into $11
    I COMMAND 35608 21.00 6.00 $ $ ...... steady at $21
    BEAT THE STORM 35610 31.00 8.50 $ $ .... into $26
    DOYOUDARE 35612 31.00 8.50 $ $ .... out to $35
    ANNAS CHOICE 35611 41.00 11.00 $ $ ...... into $21
    LORD BAUMAY 35614 51.00 13.50 $ $ ..... no change
    DRESS SUIT 35613 101.00 26.00 $ $ ....... no change
    WIRE DETONATOR (1E) 35617 101.00 26.00 $ $ ........ no change
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