In this Discussion
- BlacksAFake November 2016
- brady November 2016
- carey November 2016
- Chris November 2016
- Coldy November 2016
- DamienWyer November 2016
- detonator November 2016
- Dillinger November 2016
- dungy November 2016
- fastimesincabra November 2016
- Flanders November 2016
- Gray November 2016
- H-BOMBER November 2016
- hash November 2016
- HotJules November 2016
- Jell November 2016
- jum November 2016
- Legless November 2016
- MinesACorona November 2016
- Ngawyni November 2016
- octavius November 2016
- OliversTwist November 2016
- paraletic November 2016
- PerthTurfTalk November 2016
- Ridersonthestorm33 November 2016
- RIO November 2016
- spinking November 2016
- thefalcon November 2016
- therealkramer November 2016
- tony November 2016
- Voodoo November 2016
Who's Online
0 Members & 34 Non Members
Ascot Preview, 26th Nov 2016
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Crown Towers Plate - Scott Embry
This is an intriguing clash to start the day between impressive trialler turned debut winner Delaney and the proven class of Dainty Tess. Dainty Tess deserves favouritism having won 5 of her 11 starts to date and finishing runner up on 4 other occasions. She has banked nearly $350 000 including Westspeed Bonus and has form around Sweet Ora and The Celt. She is first-up without a trial fresh off an 80 day let up and the only question mark over her is the ability to carry 58.5kg. With Damien Oliver in the saddle I am sure many will answer that question with a resounding yes and she is clearly the one to beat. Delaney looks as though she will fire straight to the fence and is definitely capable of running time. If the hot dry conditions suit leaders which I expect they will then Delaney will take some beating. Those two well clear of the rest.
9. DELANEY - 1. DAINTY TESS - 5. SLIK SAM
This is an intriguing clash to start the day between impressive trialler turned debut winner Delaney and the proven class of Dainty Tess. Dainty Tess deserves favouritism having won 5 of her 11 starts to date and finishing runner up on 4 other occasions. She has banked nearly $350 000 including Westspeed Bonus and has form around Sweet Ora and The Celt. She is first-up without a trial fresh off an 80 day let up and the only question mark over her is the ability to carry 58.5kg. With Damien Oliver in the saddle I am sure many will answer that question with a resounding yes and she is clearly the one to beat. Delaney looks as though she will fire straight to the fence and is definitely capable of running time. If the hot dry conditions suit leaders which I expect they will then Delaney will take some beating. Those two well clear of the rest.
9. DELANEY - 1. DAINTY TESS - 5. SLIK SAM
Comments
This race is ugly from a speed mapping perspective without a definite leader. No surprise to see Abbasso, Fremond or even Settlers Creek take up the running and try to throw the anchor. Expecting a muddlingly run, stop-start affair and the winner of this race does look very well hidden on paper. In the end after a deal of head scratching I settled on Outlaw Pete. Blinkers went on last start and Jordan Turner simply couldn't get out of the pocket Jerry Noske put him in and so with Hugh Bowman going aboard I am willing to forgive and forget. Django dropping back from 1800 to a mile looks like a positive move. Settlers Creek is the weight horse in the race and should give another solid consistent effort. Pounamu finally broke through...could he win 2 on the bounce?! Trent Cotchin and Sam Mitchell won Brownlow medals so I guess anything is possible.
4. OUTLAW PETE - 3. DJANGO - 8. SETTLERS CREEK
On Saturday we will see whether or not Astonomite is merely a moon rock because from barrier 3 with W.Pike back in the saddle he will have no excuse what so ever fourth up from a spell. I am looking away from him and tipping York maiden winner turned favourite punters nightmare Macavity. Never better than 3 and 4 wide the trip at Northam after effortlessly breaking his maiden at his first WA start Macavity drops to 54kg and acquires the services of Tim Clark. If he can roll forwards and take up a prominent position he will go very close. Sigil was excellent first-up behind Candelight Star who has run well subsequently when beating home Astronomite with ease so I expect the form to stack up well and Sigil always looked as though 1500m would be his pet distance. Astronomite has been bitterly disappointing this preparation but no doubt there will be support for Pike in the cerise and white.
10. MACAVITY - 5. SIGIL - 2. ASTRONOMITE
SUGGESTED BET - 10. MACAVITY $50 x $50
On paper it looks like the day for Lenience to break back into the winners' enclosure after a string of brilliant performances against arguably touger opposition. Has run second at his past three starts to Coming Back and State Solicitor. Coming Back ran well in the Group 3 Colonel Reeves before running an eye catching race in the Carbine Club last weekend while State Solicitor chases Group 1 glory in the Winterbottom Stakes. From barrier 3 with 58.5kg on his back I think Lenience should salute. Gigante has been running well consistently for a long time and is arguably the best of the three Jim Taylor trained runners in the race. The major concern is a 3kg claiming apprentice from a wide alley. Danaura ran very well first-up from a long lay off and if you can grab some of the $5+ for a place that looks like good shopping from the inside gate.
3. LENIENCE - 1. GIGANTE - 5. DANAURA
SUGGESTED BET - 3. LENIENCE $100
Soundcheck was desperately unlucky on debut when slowly away, caught in traffic midfield with a number of green first starters and inexperienced juveniles around him he was never really tested and went to the line under a hold. From barrier 9 Damien Oliver can ease him into the race and sneak forward in the three wide train and from there he will go close. Keeper Keen was an impressive debut winner but did get every single favour you could possibly ask for up along the rails. Regardless the win was strong enough for him to be a major player again here. Okina Kuri was extremely brave in defeat tramping three wide for a large portion of the race. From barrier 1 he can settle behind the leaders and get every possible opportunity. Not discounting Miss Voleur from the same race, should settle closer from barrier 3 and does possess a sharp turn of foot which was highlighted in her trial victory. Riasc and Rubia Miss go striaght into a $100 000 race on debut having trialled well alongside eachother.
3. SOUNDCHECK - 1. KEEPER KEEN - 2. OKINA KURI
SUGGESTED BET - 3. SOUNDCHECK $100
The 2016 edition of the Listed Tattersall's Cup over 2100m could not be more evenly graded if they tried. There is hardly anything separating the 13 runners and you could make winning cases for almost every single runner. In my market the favourite is $6 and there are 4 other gallopers in single figures, confident we can expect eachway odds the field when corporate markets open and if there is a runner under $5 I will be in a state of shock. In the end I tried to find a bit of value and have gone with Kalgoorlie Cup winner Cougar Express on top. His effort in the Gold Cup was strong and from barrier 7 should find a nice position over the speed with Vengabus and Bedamijo expected to go forwards with him. Interesting to see what kind of tactics Brad Parnham adopts on Kirov Boy but you would anticipate he will be three wide until the 1400m before finding the front. Properantes should get a very economical run from barrier 1. Zarantz was very good in the Railway but has to lump 59kg on a 35 degree day. Respondent is a forgotten commodity after 1 bad run in the RJ Peters. Kia Ora Koutou needs every inch of 3000m so hopefully if Kirov Boy turns it on we can see him improve.
2. COUGAR EXPRESS - 12. PROPERANTES - 1. ZARANTZ
Luke's Gold ticks a lot of boxes when you consider he has won 3 of his 4 career starts, has one of Australia's best in Damien Oliver on his back who rode a double at the track last weekend and hails from the in-form stable of Vaughn Sigley. With the three emergencies all drawn inside of him Luke's Gold could come into barrier 7 after scratchings on race morning so he tick a lot of boxes. Much like the Tattersall's Cup this race should be eachway odds the field with Luke's Gold the likely favourite at around $5 to $5.50. If we can get around that price I think Luke's Gold should give us a run for our money. Lightly raced 3 year old Harry Thomas is drawn perfectly and has electrifying early gate speed, should find the front and lead. From there he can run a cheeky race against the older gallopers. Granlarado was savaging the line in the same race as Harry Thomas at Bunbury and from a good draw should be there abouts. You could make a case for a number of other runners with so many alternate form lines clashing.
8. LUKE'S GOLD - 16. HARRY THOMAS - 4. GRANLARADO
SUGGESTED BET - 8. LUKE'S GOLD $50 x $50
Last weekend I tipped that the 2016 Railway Stakes would stay in Western Australia and this week I am tipping, as most will be, that the 2016 Winterbottom Stakes will go East. Terravista is a 7 year old who has been competing at the top level for a very long time and while many believe his best racing is behind him I think he is still the one to beat. From barrier 5 he should get a lovely run midfield and as long as Bowman can get him into open running at the top of the home straight he has the firepower to charge the leaders down. Malaguerra is the new kid on the block relatively speaking having won the Group 1 BTC Cup in May and then the Darley Classic at Group 1 level on Oaks Day. A lot of Melbourne form experts are saying that the 2016 Darley was the weakest edition to date so it will be interesting to see how Malaguerra goes, especially from barrier 1. Expecting most punters to be picking between the two at the top of the form guide. Rock Magic was simply sensational in the Colonel Reeves when conceeding 3.5kg to Vega Magic and missing him by the narrowest of margins. Back to weight for age conditions Rock Magic looks the best of the WA chances. First Among Equals has been luckless to say the least at every run this campaign. He is drawn perfectly to position in the three wide train which is much more suitable than an inside draw. Sheidel has won 9 of her 10 starts at Ascot and should find a position outside Vega Magic at the front. No love for State Solicitor from me, hope he runs well but this is a huge leap in clas from a 72+ into a Group 1 against seasoned rivals.
1. TERRAVISTA - 2. MALAGUERRA - 4. ROCK MAGIC
SUGGESTED BET - 1. TERRAVISTA $50 x $50
Hoping that in a very familiar role W.Pike can carry punters home in the last at Ascot. O'Reilly's Crumpet looks as though he has been screaming out for 2100m for atleast two or three runs. His effort on Melbourne Cup day when mowing turf late behind subsequent Group 2 WA Guineas winner Variation was huge and then was never a winning chance at Northam when he got a mile out of his ground. With Pike going back into the saddle he should find a spot midfield with cover and then unleash late. Big Red Costa broke through for win number 2 last start when connections advised stewards that the horse would be ridden rearward and he found the perfect spot one out and one back forth up on the speed. Hard luck for bookies for laid him expecting to see him go back on a leader bias track but that's racing. Big Red Costa looks as though he will go FORWARD this time and should lead the field or sit perfectly in behind them. A big strong striding galloper who has always looked like a 2100m proposition. Magic Rocket will have to drag back from an awkward gate and must lump a full 59.5kg which severely dents his winning chances, however, form around The Forgotten One and Saxon Saxoff is better than most of his rivals. Flying Force is a forgotten galloper and one I will be punting and including in my quaddie.
5. O'REILLY'S CRUMPET (NZ) - 2. BIG RED COSTA - 1. MAGIC ROCKET
SUGGESTED BET - 5. O'REILLY'S CRUMPET (NZ) $50 x $50
hash likes this post.
Winsumlosesum, trevydards, Jordan, GLAMOUR likes this post.
Takedown is the forgotten horse, currently $9, record at the trip reads 6:3-0-1... two starts back had excuses when blocked for a run halfway up the straight at Caulfield behind Voodoo lad then last start boxed on over the 1400 at Flemington behind another nice Weir horse in Rageese, drop back to 1200 on Saturday definitely helps and Tim Clark's record on the horse 2 wins and 2 2nds from 4 rides safely tells me he knows the horse inside out.. at the price I'd prefer to be on this bloke eachway
sorry Scotty but Terravista is a huge lay for me, I just cant have a horse that hasn't won in nearly 2 years+ and the last time this pretender was victorious was in it's barrier trials... more than happy to risk it on Saturday and possibly for the rest of it's career lol
jum, frenc11 likes this post.
hash likes this post.
copy and paste job from the betfair page preview for the Winterbottom -
"BACK MALAGUERRA" - He has the two best sprinting form lines in Australia and has proven he can accelerate off a strong tempo. Only bad luck will stop him winning here.
make of that what you guys want...
$4.40 for Malaguerra from 11-12
$16 for Take Down from 12-1pm for you hashy!!
Get on Punta and have a nibble
H-BOMBER likes this post.
I'm a jinx with them, can never win unless I'm betting on course... the boys will get my business next Saturday on KT day
plus I'm without my smart phone this week, back to the old school way of ringing up to have a bet... I must admit it's been good though as it definitely limits my turnover and stops me betting on crazy novelties
LuckyLongshots, jum likes this post.
two starts ago when Keen Array raced and started a raging fav at Flemington, Gelagotis was also very very confident his other horse Illustrious Lad could turn the tables on Keen Array and it did and very convincingly at a big price! he's a good judge of his own and doesn't mind declaring them and is good at keeping in form horses up and winning for him... lets just hope Terravista stays in the field to ensure a good price on Takedown and Malaguerra
;)brady, Gray, Lendmefifty likes this post.
Coldy, Gray likes this post.
Coldy likes this post.
Thatldo
Young Lionel
Lendmefifty, Jell likes this post.
Read my mind, I'll be having a 1x2 on both. Along with Outlaw Pete, Harry Thomas and have Vega Magic in futures at 20/5 but will also be having something on First Among Equals.
H-BOMBER likes this post.
Apprentice like ride on pou. Stinking grey horse got me AGAIN ~X(
hash, RIO likes this post.
Quaddie - $40 =10%
1,3,10,11,12 - 3,4,5,8,13 - 1,4,10,11 - 1,5,6,8
Coldy likes this post.
Flanders likes this post.