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Belmont Preview, 27th Aug 2016 - MEETING IS OFF
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Belmont Bonanza Maiden - Scott Embry
Well for anyone who was dead set against having a Saturday Metro Maiden just imagine what this card would look like without it! Only 7 races including two fields of 8 in yet another lacklustre weekend of Belmont Park racing. I think we can narrow the opener down to 3 main chances and just play those 3 in the opening leg of the early quaddie. Having jagged last weeks Maiden winner at a decent eachway price I will swing again here and tip Keep Flame Alive on top. Only boasts one placing from 8 career starts and a bit of a query dropping from 2200 back to 1500 and now further back to 1300m but from the gun barrier and in-form Noske aboard I'm happy to put Keep Flame Alive on top at around $8 eachway after the early scratching of Foxinator. Three Oh Three comes back in distance from a Pinjarra Mile Maiden finishing a luckless fifth behind Khawaja. I expect Misty Bazley to try and look for the lead and settle in a prominent position. Lone Sailor can not be discounted with Paul Harvey in the saddle but is mighty short after a grinding fourth on debut.
15. KEEP FLAME ALIVE - 3. THREE OH THREE - 8. LONE SAILOR
Well for anyone who was dead set against having a Saturday Metro Maiden just imagine what this card would look like without it! Only 7 races including two fields of 8 in yet another lacklustre weekend of Belmont Park racing. I think we can narrow the opener down to 3 main chances and just play those 3 in the opening leg of the early quaddie. Having jagged last weeks Maiden winner at a decent eachway price I will swing again here and tip Keep Flame Alive on top. Only boasts one placing from 8 career starts and a bit of a query dropping from 2200 back to 1500 and now further back to 1300m but from the gun barrier and in-form Noske aboard I'm happy to put Keep Flame Alive on top at around $8 eachway after the early scratching of Foxinator. Three Oh Three comes back in distance from a Pinjarra Mile Maiden finishing a luckless fifth behind Khawaja. I expect Misty Bazley to try and look for the lead and settle in a prominent position. Lone Sailor can not be discounted with Paul Harvey in the saddle but is mighty short after a grinding fourth on debut.
15. KEEP FLAME ALIVE - 3. THREE OH THREE - 8. LONE SAILOR
Comments
Pounamu is known within a number of WA circles as "The Bookies Horse" after being a beaten favourite at his past six outings. It is hard to ignore his first-up run when Carbery was unable to find any galloping room throughout the entire length of the straight. His effort to finish third was outstanding considering the run he got in transit. Stepping up to 1400m looks ideal and if can get into the open he will go very close. From a tipping perspective I am happy to put him on top, however, from a punting perspective you have to wonder whether even money about a noted non-winner is a wise decision. Flying Roar is unlikely to get the cosy run in front that he enjoyed last start with veteran on-pacer Right Honourable only carrying 51kg care of the claim to Shelby Bowtell. Expect him to ramp the pace on and ensure a genuine tempo. Cougar Nights has a solid second-up record and his run in the Belmont Newmarket behind First Among Equals was full of merit. Grey Enigma is always a places lock at this track and distance, yet again flying under the radar.
7. POUNAMU - 6. FLYING ROAR - 5. COUGAR NIGHTS
SUGGESTED BET - 7. POUNAMU $100
I was very ready to sack Don'tgetcaught a few starts back and left him as untouched as the veges on a teenagers dinner plate last start behind boom galloper Material Man, however, with the gear change I am giving him one final chance this preparation. There are two massive highlighted parts on my form guide for this race, firstly Blinkers OFF Don'tgetcaught and secondly Blinkers ON Operational. Don'tgetcaught pulls and over-races throughout the first 1000m of his staying races and costs himself any winning chance. With the blinkers off I hope he is more tractable during the early period of the race allowing him to run right over the top of rivals. Last chance for him to avoid joining Present Arms in the Cat Files. Operational has won all his career races with the blinkers on and they are re-instated here fifth up where he also possesses a powerful record. Willing to throw him into the novelties at 40-1. Ready To Fire needs every little thing to go her way being such a small horse and from barrier 2 should get those favours in running. Not a lot between Dust Me Off and Verdello Blue, no love from me for Senso who looks as though he needs the paddock.
1. DON'TGETCAUGHT - 6. OPERATIONAL - 7. READY TO FIRE
SUGGESTED BET - 1. DON'TGETCAUGHT $100
First Among Equals looks as though he will continue on his fortnightly Listed Progression and win his forth Listed Race banking another $64 000 and taking his commanding Belmont Park record to 8 wins from 10 starts. He must conceed another half kilo to the highly consistent Rock Magic but again it looks on paper as though he will stride past him to victory. Rock Magic is very honest but First Among Equals has had his measure at both starts this campaign and it looks as though Rock Magic should run yet another Listed Placing. Red Ora was bitterly disappointing first-up in the HG Bolton. 3 weeks between runs second-up with Pike back in the saddle we are sure to see improvement but whether it is enough to turn the tables on the favourites seems unlikely. Mr Utopia is only 13 days short of registering as an official 'first-up' starter and his fresh record is exceptional. In May he was charging to the line first-up over 1400m behind WA's Glamour Mare Wink and a Nod. Proceedwithcaution is the only one outside of those 4 who looks like to figure in the finish.
3. FIRST AMONG EQUALS - 2. ROCK MAGIC - 4. MR UTOPIA
SUGGESTED BET - 3. FIRST AMONG EQUALS $100
Forever Diamonds was savaging the line late first-up behind tare away leaders Furious Dame and Conseated. Those form lines have held up with those two gallopers running the quinella in a subsequent Saturday race and Le Patron who finished midfield behind them winning impressively at Northam on Thursday. Forever Diamonds ran home in 33.85 which was an identical final 600m sectional to Rock Magic later in the day in the Listed HG Bolton. On the 54kg minimum, up to 1300m and with W.Pike jumping aboard I think Forever Diamonds will go very close to winning here. Both Crown Choice and All Too Much should enjoy soft runs up on the speed. Diamond Tonique continues to run home nicely but the concerning part is 630 days since last victory. Hello Paris was never a chance behind Royal Supreme last start, Glenn Smith back aboard is a big plus for her chances. Pushin' Shapes was caught three wide without cover for the entire journey first-up, can improve sharply. Bourbon Dynasty is a Pike only proposition in my opinion but comes from a strong form line finishing second to Chocolate Holic. Bayella must lump 60.5kg which severly dents her claims.
15. FOREVER DIAMONDS - 10. ALL TOO MUCH - 11. CROWN CHOICE
SUGGESTED BET - 15. FOREVER DIAMONDS $50 x $50
I think Recoiled gets his chance to lead over 1000m here and that will prove the winning move. First-up he cracked under pressure and fought on bravely when forced to sit outside speed demon Three Votes. Second-up was slowly away and held up at crucial stages. Third Up if he can jump quickly I think Recoiled can lead. Marchand will give a strong showing on speed as he does week in, week out. Clobberetta broke a long drought to win last start for apprentice Mollie Clark. Pike jumps aboard here and she should get a lovely tow into the race from barrier 1. Delicate Miss will settle midfield and if she can get the right splits will be right in the finish. Volkoff is the class mare of the field but carrying 59.5kg first-up on a track where she notoriously struggles, you can count me out. Furious Dame back to 1000m drawn the outside barrier for a horse who is actually quite slow out of the gates considering her racing pattern, another you can leave me out of. This is a wide open leg of the quaddie and probably a field job for most players.
8. RECOILED - 1. MARCHAND - 2. VOLKOFF
It is not very often at all you will leave W.Pike out of the final leg of the quaddie and even rarer that it is a horse gunning for a winning hat-trick, however, I think Falcon Crest will find it incredibly tough to win the final race and I think he is way under the odds. Baraki Beats meets him 4kg better for a 1 length defeat after being taken on in front by The Dankster from the 800m marker, The Forgotten One meets Falcon Crest 2kg better after being held up the entire length of the straight and Bergio, an impressive midweek winner was given no chance from the rear of the field at Pinjarra behind a farcicle tempo set by Scottish Trader and Kensington Abbey. I will be predominently playing The Forgotten One and Baraki Beats in the final race of the day. I have invested on Baraki Beats at $5 and The Forgotten One at $9 so fingers crossed one of those two will salute and it's happy days. Playing those three horses fairly confidently in the final leg of the quaddie. PTT Quaddie: 3 / 9,10,11,15 / 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9,12,13 / 1,5,6 - $100 = 83%
5. THE FORGOTTEN ONE - 1. BARAKI BEATS - 6. BERGIO
Is this Perth Racing promoting The Masters???? Or is there another Carnival on sometime as well???
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rustyh, BlacksAFake, oldhendo, LuckyLongshots, thefalcon, carey, Manchild likes this post.
<:-P \:D/
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oldhendo, RIO, Gilgamesh, SLIPPERGOLDEN, thefalcon, hash, AceV likes this post.
I would have backed 7 winners today 8->
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i'm gobsmacked..this WAS the best wet weather track in oz...we have a night of rain after a dry spell and races are canned..pharqueing hell Sydney and Melbourne races after weeks of rain.
I wonder if our journalists have anything to say...:) imagine the eastern states papers if this happened over there? they would butcher those responsible.
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I tend to agree. Trying to figure out the hidden agenda. I heard PR won't let RWWA have a say about the track manager, Murphy probably knows all about it but I think it used to be a joint thing. Then PR say they know better. And employ the goose who wrecked the WACA pitch. Nice choice if you're trying to run the tracks down for some hidden agenda.
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