Perth Cup

AndrewCarter · January 2016

Mate how's this for clear, you know sweet FA!!!
Plus if you had any idea mate is a universal australian colloquialism doubt if you possess the intelligence though to grasp that concept.
There's a big difference mate, I was always a good judge but not necessarily adept at punting that judgment properly in the past, now I am a better punter and still an exceptional judge, if not a fair bit better than before.

Thoroly_Bread · January 2016

This thread has delivered thank you.

lame · January 2016

Broody band 50 limit so either purchases or a lot of twins ;)

sonny · January 2016

Ingham's had 265, 2 year olds back in the late nineties (forgot the year) and 64 of those got to the race.(not winners). Work out the %. It's a very hard and expensive business.

Gilgamesh · January 2016

Damien Wyer said:
The past 12 months have been fabulous for Adam Durrant and Grant Williams, but they have been astronomical for Bob Peters. I thought about three months ago it had reached a tipping point, but now I no longer think it, I know it.

Not begrudging the success of anyone involved for one moment, but it is now strangling the life out of Racing in Perth. Adam and Grant are killing the pig in the Trainers stakes. Nobody else is getting a look in and precious few are doing anything but maintain survival mode.

The knock on effect is about to be felt at the Magic Millions Yearling Sale in four weeks. Very few Trainers will have a database of Owners willing to invest in the 20 or so yearlings on offer, that will over the passage of time, return some of the outlay by winning in town at least once. Buying yearlings that only win in outlying regions is not financially viable. The irony is that Bob Peters is not a buyer in most seasons of stock out of our Premier Sale. He may have to consider Delicacy's full brother but had she been a filly he would have purchased her several months ago direct from the farm.

Breeders as a result, like last year and the year before, will do a post sale analysis that will only lead them to further tighten their breedings and cull rather than expand their herds of broodmares. When they then reach a sustainable level again, then they can think about finding that one or two good mares to rebuild a breeding empire.

By the sheer weight of a hugely successful business career, and a shrewd selection of breeding stock and stallion selection, Bob Peters has forged ahead, so far ahead it seems he is impossible to catch. His broodmare band is now either exclusively black type winners or producers, and they are going to the leading stallions in Australia, several of whom he owns substantial portions of.

But he can be caught in my opinion. What he is doing can be replicated by several owners in this State, but they have to rethink some prior decisions and abandon them in most cases. In this past breeding season, I was dismayed to learn that several make mating decisions based on the service fee of the stallion and the possible deal they can get if they send multiple mares etc. Others buy into under performing entires in the hope that buying cheap will turn into a goldmine. In terms of success, this might as well be throwing darts at the board with stallions named pinned to it, as only luck will play a part.

Yesterday's Perth Cup was a big day out for Bob, but I think the WA Handicapper should really look for a new career. Allowing Delicacy to get into that race with such little weight, then making the field carry 54kg was an enormous error in judgement. She was gifted the race in real terms. She would have won most likely carrying several more kilo's such is her quality, but with the range of weight from top to bottom so condensed, the others had little hope of holding her out. Only very bad luck would have stopped her. Had she been owned by a small time owner or syndicate, I doubt she would have been treated so generously. She is a recent past Horse of the Year for goodness sake.

Well done to Grant and Alana Williams and their staff. You have taken a wonderful opportunity and turned it into a pivotal moment in your respective careers. Long may it continue.

As far as Bob is concerned, I'm really looking forward to seeing the Pierro stock run around in Perth.

This could be a very good five year period in his ownership of racehorses.

Can't blame the Handicapper Damo, haven't heard all his comments but he had no choice but to give those weights, the conditions of the race dictated that. I'm sure he himself said he wasnt happy about it. When a hadicapper cant handicap a handicap there are massive problems.

You may say its a bit of a handicap.

silky · January 2016

Legless said:
Heard that he has 72 yearlings on the ground :-??

According to the studbook he has 35 yearlings branded with his brand in 2014. He could have horses branded to other studs though.

Ngawyni · January 2016

Damien Wyer said:
Can't blame the Handicapper Damo, haven't heard all his comments but he had no choice but to give those weights, the conditions of the race dictated that. I'm sure he himself said he wasnt happy about it. When a hadicapper cant handicap a handicap there are massive problems.

You may say its a bit of a handicap.

That was the line Ian Malpass and the interviewers were running when Malpass spoke on Racing Radio on 22 December.

https://t.co/a5lDPePRmb

But the fact is he did have a discretion (1) to give Delicacy up to 61 and (2) to leave the minimum at 53.

He chose not to because he thought Delicacy shouldn't have to give the others more than 5 kgs - even though in the same interview he conceded some of the others should have been receiving 10-12 kgs from her and that he was all in favour of a bigger spread of weights!

Let's also not forget that even before the Cup he penalised Delicacy only 2 ratings points to 106 for easily winning the Group 2 Cox Stakes beating the 110 rater BHB (which then meant that in the Cup she would meet Real Love and Balmont Girl, the only horses above the minimum, a kg better than if he had penalised her 4 ratings points).

As for the Cup, the RWWA Handicapping Policy says all metro races (other than Group 1 races and races for 2 yos) should have a minimum top-weight at declaration of 59 and that Group 2 races should have a minimum weight of 53. The Racing Calendar advertised the Cup as having a maximum of 61 and a minimum of 53. So after treating Delicacy favorably for winning the Cox Stakes, he not only gave her the minimum allowable weight he could (59 when he could have given her up to 61) but he also raised the minimum to 54 contrary to the Handicapping Policy and the conditions advertised in the Racing Calendar (which meant she would now meet all the horses on the minimum a kg better than if the minimum had been 53).

The suggestion that he was somehow forced to raise the minimum weight by the conditions of the race or the rules of racing is nonsense and a cop out.

IMO Delicacy should have carried at least 60 with a 53 minimum.

And before anyone says Delicacy set a weight carrying record for a mare, I doubt there has ever been a mare with anywhere near her record run in the Cup. The previous weight carrying record for a mare was held by Saratov. When Saratov won the Cup she carried 55 but the minimum for older horses was 49.5 - so Saratov carried 5.5 over the minimum - over 3200. Saratov's best wins before the Cup were 2 listed races in Adelaide and the Cox Stakes in Perth. Delicacy with a far far superior record to Saratov carried 5 over the minimum - over 2400.

Ngawyni · January 2016

The other bit of the handicapper's twisted logic was that if he hadn't raised the weights Delicacy would have been meeting some of the horses she beat in the wfa Cox Stakes 9 kgs worse. Yet in the same interview he conceded that she should have been giving some of those horses 10-12 kgs. Surely that's what ratings based handicapping is all about - when you win you are penalised and your handicap weight goes up accordingly. And that was also the case before ratings based handicapping came along.

And in any case that's the whole point of having wfa and set weight races - they are put on to allow highly rated horses to meet their rivals on more favorable terms than they would in a handicap. To then manipulate the weights in a handicap (by raising the minimum) because a highly rated horse is going to meet horses worse off in the handicap than at wfa is nonsense.

Ngawyni · January 2016

And as for the handicapper's claim that at 2400m 1 kg = 2 lengths - Don Scott worked on 1.5 kg to a length at all distances. Rem Plante argued that weight had a differential effect over different distances. According to Plante's algorithm (known as the ADE) a 5 kg difference over 2400m would be worth about 5.5 lengths - so roughly 1 kg = 1 length at that distance. Nowhere have I seen anyone suggest that 1 kg is worth anywhere near 2 lengths.

And as most punters would know when assessing wfa and set weight form it's not as simple as doing a mathematical calculation of however many kilos to a length. There are many cases of horses coming out of a wfa or set weight race and then winning a feature handicap despite meeting their more lowly rated rivals many kilos worse off.

Gilgamesh · January 2016

I was looking for info on were it actually outlined he could only give a maximum top weight if 59kgs and a min of 54kgs-wanted the actually conditions of the specific race but couldnt find it anywhere. Thanks for the link to the interview.

HotJules · January 2016

Great posts Ngawyni. It is a rort and imo someway tarnishes her win (it was super). the same as watering the track fro Makybe Diva. There will always be another discussion around their wins. @Andrew Carter I like your style, nothing wrong with being confident and backing your ability. Let the haters hate and don't forget not to call them mate.

Perth Cup new years eve this year.

Thoroly_Bread · January 2016

Agree great reading @Ngawyni you get it

carey · January 2016

Ngawyni said:
And as for the handicapper's claim that at 2400m 1 kg = 2 lengths - Don Scott worked on 1.5 kg to a length at all distances. Rem Plante argued that weight had a differential effect over different distances. According to Plante's algorithm (known as the ADE) a 5 kg difference over 2400m would be worth about 5.5 lengths - so roughly 1 kg = 1 length at that distance. Nowhere have I seen anyone suggest that 1 kg is worth anywhere near 2 lengths.

And as most punters would know when assessing wfa and set weight form it's not as simple as doing a mathematical calculation of however many kilos to a length. There are many cases of horses coming out of a wfa or set weight race and then winning a feature handicap despite meeting their more lowly rated rivals many kilos worse off.

scott and plante were wrong, but not as wrong as the 1kg equals 2 lengths idiocy.
not that in their case it means anything, because they were punters responsible for their own luck, so they would only be hurting themselves, and as far as punting goes, there are more important issues than just the weight..

but malpass is the one deciding how to allocate weight, which in turn affects the chances of the competitors in a race, so he should KNOW the values on average(there can be no right)
thus he is handicapping races(well that is not the correct term in his case, but whatever) without having any idea of the values of the weights they are allocating.
so if malpass says 1kg is 2 lengths then he should do the right thing and resign his position.
if he said 1length equalled 2kg then he would be far closer to the truth but still very wrong.

GaryH · January 2016

Gilgamesh said:
I was looking for info on were it actually outlined he could only give a maximum top weight if 59kgs and a min of 54kgs-wanted the actually conditions of the specific race but couldnt find it anywhere. Thanks for the link to the interview.

Bob probably told them if she got more then 59, she wouldn't race. So faced with a cup field with no star attraction....

Rock and a Hard Place.

Tivers · January 2016

Don't think anyone had an issue with her 59...............it was everyone else's 54

BobbyDavis · January 2016

Gary H said:

Gilgamesh said:
I was looking for info on were it actually outlined he could only give a maximum top weight if 59kgs and a min of 54kgs-wanted the actually conditions of the specific race but couldnt find it anywhere. Thanks for the link to the interview.
Bob probably told them if she got more then 59, she wouldn't race. So faced with a cup field with no star attraction....

Rock and a Hard Place.

I think this is the major factor in the way the weights were allocated.

Ferris273 · January 2016

Bobby Davis said:

Gary H said:

Gilgamesh said:
I was looking for info on were it actually outlined he could only give a maximum top weight if 59kgs and a min of 54kgs-wanted the actually conditions of the specific race but couldnt find it anywhere. Thanks for the link to the interview.
Bob probably told them if she got more then 59, she wouldn't race. So faced with a cup field with no star attraction....

Rock and a Hard Place.
I think this is the major factor in the way the weights were allocated

Bobby Davis said:
Therefore validating Webby's comments as true.........weights were manipulated for her to win basically

DarkTarget · January 2016

The relationship between weight and margin is generally speaking fairly constant, so assuming the effect of weight increases as the distance does, the importance of beaten margins decreases at a similar rate. So you're potentially adding additional points for weight over distance, but you have to deduct less for beaten marging over distance also.

theketaminekid · January 2016

Damien Wyer said:
The past 12 months have been fabulous for Adam Durrant and Grant Williams, but they have been astronomical for Bob Peters. I thought about three months ago it had reached a tipping point, but now I no longer think it, I know it.

Not begrudging the success of anyone involved for one moment, but it is now strangling the life out of Racing in Perth. Adam and Grant are killing the pig in the Trainers stakes. Nobody else is getting a look in and precious few are doing anything but maintain survival mode.

The knock on effect is about to be felt at the Magic Millions Yearling Sale in four weeks. Very few Trainers will have a database of Owners willing to invest in the 20 or so yearlings on offer, that will over the passage of time, return some of the outlay by winning in town at least once. Buying yearlings that only win in outlying regions is not financially viable. The irony is that Bob Peters is not a buyer in most seasons of stock out of our Premier Sale. He may have to consider Delicacy's full brother but had she been a filly he would have purchased her several months ago direct from the farm.

Breeders as a result, like last year and the year before, will do a post sale analysis that will only lead them to further tighten their breedings and cull rather than expand their herds of broodmares. When they then reach a sustainable level again, then they can think about finding that one or two good mares to rebuild a breeding empire.

By the sheer weight of a hugely successful business career, and a shrewd selection of breeding stock and stallion selection, Bob Peters has forged ahead, so far ahead it seems he is impossible to catch. His broodmare band is now either exclusively black type winners or producers, and they are going to the leading stallions in Australia, several of whom he owns substantial portions of.

But he can be caught in my opinion. What he is doing can be replicated by several owners in this State, but they have to rethink some prior decisions and abandon them in most cases. In this past breeding season, I was dismayed to learn that several make mating decisions based on the service fee of the stallion and the possible deal they can get if they send multiple mares etc. Others buy into under performing entires in the hope that buying cheap will turn into a goldmine. In terms of success, this might as well be throwing darts at the board with stallions named pinned to it, as only luck will play a part.

Yesterday's Perth Cup was a big day out for Bob, but I think the WA Handicapper should really look for a new career. Allowing Delicacy to get into that race with such little weight, then making the field carry 54kg was an enormous error in judgement. She was gifted the race in real terms. She would have won most likely carrying several more kilo's such is her quality, but with the range of weight from top to bottom so condensed, the others had little hope of holding her out. Only very bad luck would have stopped her. Had she been owned by a small time owner or syndicate, I doubt she would have been treated so generously. She is a recent past Horse of the Year for goodness sake.

Well done to Grant and Alana Williams and their staff. You have taken a wonderful opportunity and turned it into a pivotal moment in your respective careers. Long may it continue.

As far as Bob is concerned, I'm really looking forward to seeing the Pierro stock run around in Perth.

This could be a very good five year period in his ownership of racehorses.

Agree with a lot you have said but you are way off about delicacy the horse obviously has an incredible will to win and although carrying such a massive impost she still won. Surely you would have to agree a contributing factor to doing the tendons can be contributed to the weight she carried albeit some blame can go to the substandard track we have at the moment. I just think more should be made of her incredible will rather than getting in at that weight it was a fair weight and particularly given it has more than likely contributed to the end of her career.

Piston_Broke · January 2016

No ones detracting from her wonderful performance. You think it was a fair weight your dreaming, she got in light. If you think the weight contributed to her breaking down, that choice was 1 mans. Is it his fault ? I don't think so, it happens in racing. Track was in top nick. She was a top class filly her record will always prove that.

Darkhorse · January 2016

Has to be PR`s fault, everything else is.

theketaminekid · January 2016

Have to agree to disagree on the weight! pistonbroke what do think she should of got given the minimum was 54kg and you have hindsight also??

carey · January 2016

theketaminekid said:
Have to agree to disagree on the weight! pistonbroke what do think she should of got given the minimum was 54kg and you have hindsight also??

PB is spot on.
she got in light, and most of the others were out of the handicap to boot.
59 is SFA, especially when there was bugger all spread.
if it was not a fair and manageable weight, she would not have won, but she did.
there were many horses badly weighted as far as their ability goes in that race, but delicacy was NOT one of them.
malpass should have received a sling for playing his part in the victory is my opinion!

theketaminekid · January 2016

I ask you carey what do you think she should have received? it is hard when you are working to a minimum weight scale. I agree half of those horses are already out of the race due to that but in my opinion they didn't deserve to be in a group two race anyway such is the depth of our racing they get thrown in when they do not deserve to. You are probably right about the weight but she had not done a lot outside of her own age in my opinion.

Tivers · January 2016

It should have had a 52kg minimum

Piston_Broke · January 2016

On her record she was entitled to 60.5 minimum IMO

BobbyDavis · January 2016

Kirov Boy should have broken down by now if you think Delicacy had it tough!

Ngawyni · January 2016

I see the handicapper has now given Delicacy 6 points for her win. I think that's called shutting the gate after the horse has bolted!

jum · January 2016

She should have had 60 kgs with the minimum of 52 for the race.

She would have won by a more if Kirov Boy didn't come back on her. IMO I think that is when she might have hurt herself when she dived back to the rails after passing the tiring horse.

AndrewCarter · January 2016

Funny you should say that Jum I said the exact same thing on the Delicacy thread several days ago about it being injured when Kirov cat collapsed in its lap after they had to radically change direction to get around it.
Andrew Carter

January 4

Unusual for Bob not to back his own initial judgment as he normally errs on the side of caution in those situations.
Wouldn't be surprised if she injured herself when she had to very quickly and acutely change direction in order to avoid that camel Kirov Boy collapsing back in its lap.
I like Danny and I don't begrudge him to be still riding but surely the same rules of riding to fulfill the best possible placings have to apply to him the same as it does to any
other jockey???
It's not the first time one of his front running rides have collapsed in the laps of others as well, looks great when it comes off but that doesn't happen too often.
Nothing wrong with leading boldly, there is something wrong however when horses are overridden in front however or beyond their capabilities and then cause interference when they stop as though shot,

G'day Punter!

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