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http://promo.betfair.com.au/dominic_beirne/2012_form/dom_beirne_analysis_13-4-12.pdf
so i am guessing that betfair don't want nsw, or now victoria, previewed by dom.
he may have to start doing the pommy races soon! :lol:
RACE 1 ?MASH BREWING HANDICAP 1000m
No. 2 REBEL FURY ? We kick off the day with a small field of sprinters. I?m going to take a punt on (2) REBEL FURY who resumes from a spell and was a recent top trial winner. From barrier 2, he should trail the speed and I suspect he?ll be very hard to hold out late. (3) BEACH EXPRESS is flying for Adam Durrant and he looks like the obvious testing material with only 51kg on his back. He strung together a winning hat trick before last week?s terrific second to the freak galloper, Barakey. (5) MEGEM?S BOY was finishing off nicely last week and with William Pike retaining the mount, he has some claims. (1) BLACKSMITH is a very consistent galloper who is always around the mark.
Numbers ? 2, 3, 5, 1
RACE 2 ? $80,000 LISTED GRANDSTAND CUP 1400m
No. 3 MABEL GRACE ? This is a disappointing line-up with only six runners to face the starter for this feature event. (3) MABEL GRACE has been a model of consistency this preparation, running second at her last three starts, all at listed level. She should be able to lead this event and if she can dictate terms up front, she will be very hard to get over. The blinkers go on (5) GUM NUT GURU and that might just be the edge he needs to find that extra length to break through for a deserved victory. (1) REIMBURSEMENT is the class galloper of the race but he does have the 59kg to contend with. From barrier 1, he?ll box seat and will be in the mix. (4) SPECCIO returned to form at Pinjarra and if he can repeat that performance, he could surprise at odds.
Numbers 3, 5, 1, 4
RACE 3 ? THE BREAKWATER TAVERN HANDICAP 1400m
No. 2 AVE THE SNIP ? This should be a good competitive betting affair with multiple winning chances. I?m happy to be on (2) AVE THE SNIP on an each way basis. He was a very good winner two starts back in mid week company. He then had no luck at his last start when he was stuck in traffic on the turn. Jason Brown goes back on and from his draw, he should land a spot right over the speed. I think he?ll be hard to beat. (1) ALMACHINO is the class runner of the field and she has strong winning claims. The 59kg is the question mark. (4) TRUE GOLD was a bit scratchy first up at Pinjarra where he settled off the speed and worked home fairly. William Pike goes back aboard which is a big plus and he looks to have each way prospects. (3) IRMA LA DANE is a hard filly to catch but at her best she would be more than competitive at this level.
Numbers ? 2, 1, 4, 3
RACE 4 ?MALT SUPPER CLUB HANDICAP 1100m
No. 3 RON?S CALL ? There are some extremely talented gallopers set to race on this program and one of them is (3) RON?S CALL. He took all before him last preparation, including a first class win in the Fairetha Stakes where he obliterated his rivals by 4 lengths. It is being mooted that he is being set for a crack at some of the Brisbane features over the winter carnival. If that is the case, he should give this lot windburn. (2) METAL TALK looks the clear second pick in the race. He?s a galloper with plenty of ability and he should be very close to the mark fitness wise with the benefit of two trials under his belt. (7) COCKEYED BOB is racing well at the provincials and with William Pike retaining the mount, he should be in the mix. (5) DU PRINTEMPS is consistent and has good top four claims again.
Numbers ? 3, 2, 7, 5
RACE 5 ? $80,000 LISTED MATCHMAKER CLASSIC 1400m
No. 12 ROSE ? This is a good, competitive line-up for this feature event for the fillies and mares. (12) ROSE is a gun mare who tasted defeat for the first time last start after she found a stack of trouble in running and flooded home to be beaten by a short neck. From barrier 4, hopefully Kyra Yuill can keep her in clear galloping room and from there she should be able to blow these away. (4) ELLE CHOISIT has been terrific at her last start two starts. If she can find room to move then she?ll be steaming home late. (11) RESETGOLD was a bit disappointing first up when she appeared to peak on her effort with 100m to go. With a bit more fitness on her side, she should be competitive. (6) MISS VINNOIRE has ability and if she can find a nice spot and settle, she?s an each way hope.
Numbers 12, 4, 11, 6
RACE 6 ?$200,000 GROUP III W.A. SIRES? PRODUCE STAKES 1400m
No. 6 MISS SOLIS ? A high class field of juveniles has been assembled for this feature two-year-old event. The main form line is the Karrakatta Plate with the first five over the line set to take their place in this field. I?m happy to be on (6) MISS SOLIS who I thought put in an enormous performance in the Karrakatta Plate. She finished a close up third after starting from the outside gate and sitting wide throughout. From barrier 1, she should be able to box seat and from there will take a stack of beating. (1) LUKE?S LUCK stormed home from the tail to win the Karrakatta Plate in brilliant fashion. If he is close enough when they straighten, he?ll be very hard to hold out again. (7) KEEPER QUIET is a very nice filly who has undeniable winning claims; she was also very good in the Karrakatta Plate. (8) FUDDLE DEE DUDDLE is very honest and will be around the mark again.
Numbers ? 6, 1, 7, 8
RACE 7 ? $400,000 GROUP II SCHWEPPES W.A.T.C DERBY 2400m
No. 3 ROHAN ? It looks like a very even field for the 125th running of this time honoured classic for the three-year-olds. I think a lot will come down to luck in running. I?m a big fan of (3) ROHAN and am happy to stick with him despite the fact that he was beaten at his last start, as a short priced favourite. He was the brilliant winner of the J.C. Roberts Stakes over 1800m where he made a mid race move from the tail and found plenty in the straight to get there late. He then appeared to be set for another win in the Melvista Stakes until he peaked at the 100m and was reeled in late. It was still a good effort. He does possess a better turn of foot than most of his rivals so if they walk up front, I think he might be able to sprint clear on straightening and be the horse to run down. The eastern state?s galloper (2) FLASHY FELLA must be respected. He was the narrow but impressive winner at his most recent run at Caulfield after he made an early move mid race but found plenty in the straight to hold his rivals at bay, despite meeting interference. He should settle right over the speed and be hard to get over. (4) LETHAL JONES looks the best stayer in the field and if they run the race at a solid tempo, he will be very hard to hold out. His win in the Melvista Stakes was the perfect Derby trial. Paul Harvey goes onto (14) ELITE BELLE and I think she is the value runner. Although she was well beaten in the W.A. Oaks, I thought she was finding the line nicely over the concluding stages. Ridden stone cold I think she?ll be strong late. I could have easily missed the winner in my top four picks; it?s that type of race!
Numbers ? 3, 2, 4, 14
RACE 8 ? THE ADRIAN BECKETT CLASSIC HANDICAP 1600m
No. 8 STOMPIN ? We finish the day with a restricted grade event over the mile which appears to lack depth. (8) STOMPIN is in career best form and he should be able to find the front and prove very hard to beat. He looked the winner last start until he was nailed right on the post by Vermeer, a galloper with ability. (7) MOMENT OF LOVE steps up to a Saturday class race but he certainly has strong each way claims again. He?ll sit right over the speed and make his own luck in running. (2) MICKEY DRIPPIN broke a long run of outs at his most recent outing when he defeated the very talented, Rafferty. He?s a chance to go back to back with the right run. (9) TENNESSY should be the improver. He hasn?t had the best of luck since winning three starts back. If he gets a cart into the race he should be strong late.
Numbers ? 8, 7, 2, 9
Can't come into Rose at the price, yes she was a moral beaten, but jumps from a BM68 to a listed mares an never been past 1200m. No Thanks.
Happy to back Comtesse La Gran eachway
can you see something that i can't!?
eastern state horse for the derby!
im going to roll a concession bet up for an interest:
rebel fury
almachino
metal talk
rose
miss solis
stompin
see ho far it goes, fingers crossed i get past the 1st race!! :lol:
Rose should win today, make up for last starts debacle
it's a weird weird place.
hard to fathom sometimes how those little guys figure they are giving their mounts every chance.
it's a weird weird place all right.
3-8-11-12
1-6-7-8
2-3-4-7-12
2-7-8-9
Didn't she learn from last time, go down the outside, gaps don't come in fields like that!
OMG