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Melbourne Cup 2011 discussion

East Coast Racing
LuckyLongshotsLuckyLongshots    4,270 posts
edited November -1 East Coast Racing
So most of the major lead in races have been run and won (except for the Derby and Mackinnon)

Americain looks a mighty chance of backing up with another win in the great race, after an awesome run at the Valley today.

Dunaden has to be considered, as Geelong Cup form is probably now the best lead-up form for this race.

Illo and Tullamore were good in the MV Cup, surely gives them a chance.

Lucas Cranach a good run in the Caulfield Cup - Green Moon a great run!

2nd acceptances on Monday at 10am

Thoughts or opinions on the race that stops the nation?

Comments

  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    7,969 posts
    Last year he ran down So You Think, regarded by most including me, as being already across the line in that race. They way in which he won today, and I have only seen the last 300M of the race on the news, but he will slaughter them in the Melbourne Cup.
  • LuckyLongshotsLuckyLongshots    4,270 posts
    Yes, was an excellent run and very similar to the way he won both races last year, just stalked them, and races over the top of them.

    I forgot to add a "not listed" to the poll - can't edit it now, if you think something outside those ten or so names will win, post it in this thread to discuss.
  • dungydungy    9,278 posts
    said:

    Last year he ran down So You Think, regarded by most including me, as being already across the line in that race. They way in which he won today, and I have only seen the last 300M of the race on the news, but he will slaughter them in the Melbourne Cup.

    Agree that was super impressive today i think it will be a French quinella and also liked the run of Bauer in the Geel Cup an Oz horse wont run top 5 IMO
  • squid69squid69    1,434 posts
    Americain ultra impressive today. A worthy favorite, and has one of the worlds' best on top. Mosse a very cool jockey.

    If you are looking for a roughie, and often in the great race you get a longshot in the placings, Niwot could be the one. It wasn't that bad a run in the Caulfield Cup after having to do work from the outside draw, then being left in front early when Mighty High punctured. He boxed on pretty well.

    He's proven at the distance, albeit in much lesser company.

    Will be international 1-2 though.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    The French and the Germans look to have a strangle hold on the race. Americain was awesome, considering the trouble he found at the 600m, and someone said above, Mosse a cool customer. I like the fact internationals are doing well down here, the better horse flesh making the trip is only good and these winners are giving international trainers the confidence to bring one down here.

    And further, no penalty for Americain, is that because it was a set weights race? They would be loving that, did look a weight special (even tho I was on Shewan...).

    I reckon the french trainers got together and planned their campaigns so they wouldnt meet until the grand final 8)
  • ColdyColdy    1,720 posts
    Is Bauer a guaranteed runner ? i back it at 100 to 1 a few weeks ago, it run was better than Dunaden apart from the fact it didn't win.

    Still a massive fan of At First Sight, unsure if it will get a run. Will win a lot if it gets in and wins, entered for Bendigo Cup on Wed

    American is a Gun also backed it a few months ago

    Dunaden goes without saying now.
    If they all run there's my 1st 4 :lol:
  • slipatiptomeslipatiptome    3,351 posts
    Jukebox Jury is a strong on pace runner who led all the way and finished strongly to win last start over 3000 in France. The beaten brigade included Americain, Manighar and Dunaden. Reproducing that form it could be the one to beat and is my main selection.

    Drunken Sailor shouldn't be ignored. A horse with concentration issues but is talented and is a certain each way chance. Flemington will suit.

    Americain beat a very strong cup field last year and it's only danger this year could be a firm track and a slow pace or indeed a combination of both.

    Unfortunately I find it difficult to select a local horse to fill a place.
  • VorgtrafficVorgtraffic    1,755 posts
    Whatever williams is on will win

    He's a freak
  • slipatiptomeslipatiptome    3,351 posts
    Have just watched a recording of Racing Retro,,,, I didn't know the owners of Americain had bought a share in Jukebox Jury. That may explain why the horse is here because the trainer now isn't fussed on his horses running in the Melbourne Cup.
  • perfectjetperfectjet    217 posts
    Americain- looks bomb proof down here.

    Moyenne corniche- good win in the ebor and a nice run first go in oz. Im a little suss on tne ebor form as stable mate saptapadi sat wide and only got beat a few lengths by moyenne corniche. Saptapadi hasnt got hot here.

    Jukebox jury - irish derby win at the mountain climbing track the curagh was gutsy. The thing i liked is that murtagh rode him along early and when put under pressure a long way out, he found plenty. On pace and very tough. Looked a smallish grey, no oil painting as far as i could tell on youtube.

    Fox hunt- another out of the ebor, it was the unlucky runner and should have finished a clear second atleast. What i liked?...it was squeezed out of a run at the 200m mark, eased bck but showed a turn of foot to pick up and finish strong. I think it is a euro stayer with a few gears.

    Unusual suspect - nice last start and i respect the camp its in. M.c.kent.
  • dungydungy    9,278 posts
    Ive taken Manawunui into Americain @ 11s and also into Duneden at 20s just need Manawanui to win the Derby looks very hard to beat that win saturday was a track gallop nothing more Scofield said over the line he wa very strong on the bridle good sign as he also setteld well luck in running is all he needs IMO
  • perfectjetperfectjet    217 posts
    In the vrc derby, can someone tell me if CORNELL is paid up and a certain starter?

    Its run in the gellong classic was a beauty, as good as INDUNA's which is a $6 chance and cornell is $51.

    And i hope tney stick with d.moor if it does start. Kid is riding a bit for freedman and is in great form...riding really well.
  • VorgtrafficVorgtraffic    1,755 posts
    Leave me out of that induna race
  • tonytony    2,436 posts
    said:

    In the vrc derby, can someone tell me if CORNELL is paid up and a certain starter?

    Its run in the gellong classic was a beauty, as good as INDUNA's which is a $6 chance and cornell is $51.

    And i hope tney stick with d.moor if it does start. Kid is riding a bit for freedman and is in great form...riding really well.

    Cornell is still in at this stage but I do not know if he is a certain starter.
  • ericwanduericwandu    544 posts
    had 20e/w on cosmonaut at $251 on the weekend

    just the bart factor basically.
  • PrattyPratty    244 posts
    I didn't mind the run of Moyenne Corniche. If it doesn't get a start I can't go past Americain, Bauer and Dunaden.
  • slipatiptomeslipatiptome    3,351 posts
    I've had a nibble on one I mentioned a while back.. Lost In The Moment..Buick confirmed to ride. Big run last time it started over the 3200 distance. Currently $41 The connections need the money :wink:
  • LuckyLongshotsLuckyLongshots    4,270 posts
    2nd Acceptances in today:

    1 JUKEBOX JURY (IRE) (Mark Johnston) 6 h 57.0 -2.5 $1,361,389 10/09/2011 1st G1 2800m Irish St Leger IRE
    2 AMERICAIN (USA) (Alain de Royer Dupre) 7 h 58.0 -1.5 $4,524,165 2/11/2010 1st G1 3200m Emirates Melbourne Cup
    3 SHAMROCKER (NZ) (Danny O'Brien) 4 m 52.0 -4.5 $1,975,888 9/04/2011 1st G1 2400m AJC Derby
    4 MIDAS TOUCH (GB) (Robert Hickmott) 5 h 55.0 -4.5 $1,181,416 11/09/2010 2nd G1 2900m English St Leger UK
    5 DUNADEN (FR) (Mikel Delzangles) 6 h 54.5 (inc 0.5kg pen) -5.0 $484,800 19/10/2011 1st G3 2400m Geelong Cup
    6 MANIGHAR (FR) (Luca Cumani) 6 g 54.0 -5.5 $770,982 13/05/2011 3rd G2 2800m Yorkshire Cup UK
    7 GLASS HARMONIUM (IRE) (Michael Moroney) 6 h 54.0 -5.5 $620,325 11/06/2011 2nd G2 2400m Brisbane Cup
    8 UNUSUAL SUSPECT (USA) (Michael Kent) 8 h 54.0 -5.5 $542,397 13/11/2010 1st G1 2400m Hollywood Turf Club Cup USA
    9 DRUNKEN SAILOR (IRE) (Luca Cumani) 7 g 54.0 -5.5 $525,948 29/07/2011 1st G3 2400m Glorious Goodwood Stakes UK
    10 LINTON (Robert Hickmott) 5 g 53.5 -6.0 $784,400 2/04/2011 3rd G1 2400m BMW Tancred Stakes
    11 PRECEDENCE (NZ) (Bart Cummings) 6 g 53.5 -6.0 $723,500 23/10/2010 1st G2 2500m Moonee Valley Cup
    12 MOURAYAN (IRE) (Robert Hickmott) 6 h 53.5 -6.0 $710,273 2/04/2011 2nd G1 2400m BMW Tancred Stakes
    13 LUCAS CRANACH (GER) (Anthony Freedman) 5 h 53.5 -6.0 $242,990 26/06/2011 1st G2 2400m Hansa Preis Hamburg GER
    14 RED CADEAUX (GB) (Ed Dunlop) 6 g 53.5 -6.0 $210,675 10/09/2011 3rd G1 2800m Irish St Leger IRE
    15 FOX HUNT (IRE) (Mark Johnston) 5 g 53.5 (inc 0.5kg pen) -6.0 $172,779 18/09/2011 1st G3 2800m German St Leger GER
    16 HAWK ISLAND (GB) (Chris Waller) 7 g 53.0 -6.5 $747,650 2/04/2011 4th G1 2400m BMW Tancred Stakes
    17 LOST IN THE MOMENT (IRE) (Saeed bin Suroor) 5 h 53.0 -6.5 $216,044 28/07/2011 2nd G2 3200m Goodwood Cup UK
    18 ILLO (GER) (Bart Cummings) 6 h 53.0 -6.5 $160,835 22/10/2011 3rd G2 2500m Moonee Valley Cup
    19 MODUN (IRE) (Saeed bin Suroor) 5 g 53.0 -6.5 $129,425 3/09/2011 1st G3 2400m September Stakes UK
    20 AT FIRST SIGHT (IRE) (Robert Hickmott) 5 h 52.5 -7.0 $639,243 5/06/2010 2nd G1 2400m Epsom Derby UK
    21 BOOMING (NZ) (Jeff Lynds) 7 g 52.5 -7.0 $430,292 10/03/2010 2nd G1 3200m Auckland Cup NZ
    22 OLDER THAN TIME (Gai Waterhouse) 5 m 51.0 -7.0 $243,905 23/04/2011 2nd G1 3200m Sydney Cup
    23 TACTIC (GB) (David Hayes) 6 g 52.5 -7.0 $117,557 26/6/2010 1st G3 2800m Curragh Cup IRE
    24 SAHARA SUN (CHI) (Luca Cumani) 4 h 51.0 -7.0 $87,416 6/02/2011 2nd G1 2400m Chile Derby CHI
    25 TULLAMORE (NZ) (Gai Waterhouse) 5 g 52.0 -7.5 $621,492 11/06/2011 1st G2 2400m Brisbane Cup
    26 THE VERMINATOR (Chris Waller) 5 g 52.0 (inc 2.0kg pen) -7.5 $561,100 1/10/2011 1st G1 2400m Metropolitan Handicap
    27 MOYENNE CORNICHE (GB) (Brian Ellison) 7 g 52.0 -7.5 $275,394 20/08/2011 1st Ebor Handicap UK
    28 SAPTAPADI (IRE) (Brian Ellison) 6 g 52.0 -7.5 $81,232 14/08/2010 3rd G3 2656m Geoffrey Freer Stakes UK
    29 BAUER (IRE) (Luca Cumani) 9 h 52.0 -7.5 $80,288 19/10/2011 3rd G3 2400m Geelong Cup
    30 SHEWAN (Robert Smerdon) 5 g 51.5 (inc 1.5kg pen) -8.0 $248,818 8/10/2011 1st G2 2400m Herbert Power Handicap
    31 IRONSTEIN (Gerald Ryan) 6 g 51.0 -8.5 $543,900 21/05/2011 1st LR 2400m W.J. McKell Cup
    32 LAMASERY (David Vandyke) 5 g 51.0 (inc 1.0kg pen) -8.5 $345,250 1/10/2011 3rd G1 2400m Metropolitan Handicap
    33 NIWOT (Team Hawkes) 7 g 51.0 -8.5 $236,325 21/05/2011 1st LR 3200m Andrew Ramsden Stakes
    34 GREEN MOON (IRE) (Robert Hickmott) 5 h 50.5 (inc 0.5kg pen) -9.0 $601,596 15/10/2011 1st G3 2300m Newcastle Cup
    35 SPECHENKA (Ben Ahrens) 6 g 50.5 -9.0 $381,850 26/12/2010 1st G3 2400m Summer Cup
    36 SHOWCAUSE (Frank Ritchie) 6 g 50.5 -9.0 $380,752 19/02/2011 1st G2 2400m Avondale Cup NZ
    37 MACEDONIAN (NZ) (Peter Moody) 6 g 50.5 -9.0 $347,276 14/03/2011 3rd G2 3200m Adelaide Cup
    38 TANBY (Robert Hickmott) 5 g 50.0 -9.5 $223,455 8/10/2011 2nd G2 2400m Herbert Power Handicap
    39 GALIZANI (John Thompson) 5 m 50.0 -9.5 $187,725 15/10/2011 1st LR 2400m City Tatts Cup
    40 ANUDJAWUN (NZ) (Shaun Dwyer) 6 g 50.0 -9.5 $113,025 9/04/2011 2nd G2 2600m ATC Chairmans Handicap
    41 TWO FOR TEA (NZ) (Gai Waterhouse) 5 g 50.0 -9.5 $53,164 24/10/2011 3rd G3 2400m Colin Stephen Quality
    42 RAFFAELLO (Patrick Ryan) 7 h 50.5 -9.0 $279,700 Not passed first elimination clause
    43 MIDNIGHT MARTINI (Mark Kavanagh) 4 m 50.0 -9.5 $183,438 Not passed first elimination clause
    44 COSMONAUT (Bart Cummings) 4 g 50.0 -9.5 $118,565 Not passed first elimination clause
    45 REPRISAL (David Hayes) 6 g 50.0 -9.5 $105,563 Not passed first elimination clause
    46 BACK IN BLACK (NZ) (John Steffert) 6 g 50.0 -9.5 $102,096 Not passed first elimination clause
    47 WESTERN SYMBOL (NZ) (Gai Waterhouse) 5 g 50.0 -9.5 $67,390 Not passed first elimination clause

    http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/asset/cms/SRC%202011/2011%20Emirates%20Melbourne%20Cup%20Elimination%20Order%20241011.pdf
  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    8,435 posts
    Thanks for posting Lucky. I had googled earlier to check but your list is more recent.
  • TheFunksterTheFunkster    3,840 posts
    Slip, you seem to follow the UK/Irish form a bit; wasn't Red Cadeaux the run of the race in the Irish St Ledger when 3rd to Jukebox Jury :?:
    Will obviously meet it better at the weights now.
    On exposed form here, I don't mind Lucas Cranach, Unusual Suspect, Moyenne Corniche and Green Moon.
    Americain is huge unders at $3.50; not many win with 58kgs and his form in Europe is inferior to a few of the others
  • LuckyLongshotsLuckyLongshots    4,270 posts
    Fair points Funkster, but at the end of the day - he is proven here over the 3200m at Flemington - that counts for a lot!

    But do agree it is going to be a great race this year, with so many internationals - finally the Europeans have realised they can't bring plodders for our great race!

    Americain is still a big chance (even with the weight), because he can sit and sprint when needed. I won't be potting him! But the form of Jukebox Jury and Dunaden is nothing to sneeze at!
  • VorgtrafficVorgtraffic    1,755 posts
    said:

    Slip, you seem to follow the UK/Irish form a bit; wasn't Red Cadeaux the run of the race in the Irish St Ledger when 3rd to Jukebox Jury :?:
    Will obviously meet it better at the weights now.
    On exposed form here, I don't mind Lucas Cranach, Unusual Suspect, Moyenne Corniche and Green Moon.
    Americain is huge unders at $3.50; not many win with 58kgs and his form in Europe is inferior to a few of the others

    Red Cadeaux was 50-1 in that race which makes it hard to like

    Agree americain is unders, especially with the possibility of it drawing inside which would ruin its chances, i thought that MV race had no substance to it apart from the winner.
  • darkshinesdarkshines    2,837 posts
    The JJ win in the Kergolay was a farce - he was fair dinkum doing 14 second furlongs mid race and nothing bothered eyeballing him . . . . EVERYTHING looked ordinary behind him. Crucially but, Manighar beat home Americain, Red Cadeaux and Dunaden comprehensively, and we know in Aussie conditions there a post code between Americain and the plodder Manighar.

    The racing is foreign (literally :P), we all know that the import that wins the MC is the one with dash/ability to quicken. We know Americain and Dunaden have it, we know Manighar/Drunken Sailor don't (plodders). From the tapes, I'd be inclined to think JJ is more a Vinnie Roe type than a Media Puzzle type. VR >>>> MP in Europe, but here . . . . . completely different.

    JJ is going to try and lead and set pace to suit. Last time someone tried that . . . . embarassment.

    Plus we all know a lead up run here increases chances tenfold. In summary - forget the Euro form, believe what you see here. Americain or Dunaden wins it.
  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    8,435 posts
    said:

    Slip, you seem to follow the UK/Irish form a bit; wasn't Red Cadeaux the run of the race in the Irish St Ledger when 3rd to Jukebox Jury :?:

    Probably it's best run and I can understand why you are having a look at it. Despite being placed in over half it's runs it's best distance seems to be 2400. I just find it hard to believe a horse that wins @ Hamilton in UK can go on and win a Melbourne Cup. Not without a rough place chance at best but don't let me sway you Funkster.
  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    8,435 posts
    said:

    JJ is going to try and lead and set pace to suit. Last time someone tried that . . . . embarassment..

    Jukebox Jury does not have to lead it can sit on the pace and still be in the finish.
  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    8,435 posts
    said:

    said:

    Slip, you seem to follow the UK/Irish form a bit; wasn't Red Cadeaux the run of the race in the Irish St Ledger when 3rd to Jukebox Jury :?:
    Will obviously meet it better at the weights now.
    On exposed form here, I don't mind Lucas Cranach, Unusual Suspect, Moyenne Corniche and Green Moon.
    Americain is huge unders at $3.50; not many win with 58kgs and his form in Europe is inferior to a few of the others

    Red Cadeaux was 50-1 in that race which makes it hard to like .
    It was actually 12/1 fourth favourite in a six horse field.. only beaten a length and beat home the odds on favourite
  • dungydungy    9,278 posts
    said:

    The JJ win in the Kergolay was a farce - he was fair dinkum doing 14 second furlongs mid race and nothing bothered eyeballing him . . . . EVERYTHING looked ordinary behind him. Crucially but, Manighar beat home Americain, Red Cadeaux and Dunaden comprehensively, and we know in Aussie conditions there a post code between Americain and the plodder Manighar.

    The racing is foreign (literally :P), we all know that the import that wins the MC is the one with dash/ability to quicken. We know Americain and Dunaden have it, we know Manighar/Drunken Sailor don't (plodders). From the tapes, I'd be inclined to think JJ is more a Vinnie Roe type than a Media Puzzle type. VR >>>> MP in Europe, but here . . . . . completely different.

    JJ is going to try and lead and set pace to suit. Last time someone tried that . . . . embarassment.

    Plus we all know a lead up run here increases chances tenfold. In summary - forget the Euro form, believe what you see here. Americain or Dunaden wins it.

    Well put DS agree with yoy there mate im not worried with Ameraicains weight with the right run and Mosse who is a genius up he looks hard to beat i backed him at 4.80 on Sunday as well as Duniden and have them both doubled up wityh Manawanui in the Derby
  • Looks like there will only be one of two Australian Bred runners in the Cup this year :shock:
  • justrandomjustrandom    222 posts
    Does the winner of the Bendigo Cup get a spot in the Melbourne Cup?
  • darkshinesdarkshines    2,837 posts
    No.

    At First Sight has a start, Tanby, Sahara Sun and some others would need a significant penalty (2kg or more) to get a run . . . won't happen
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