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Melbourne Cup 2011 discussion
East Coast Racing
LuckyLongshots
4,270 posts
So most of the major lead in races have been run and won (except for the Derby and Mackinnon)
Americain looks a mighty chance of backing up with another win in the great race, after an awesome run at the Valley today.
Dunaden has to be considered, as Geelong Cup form is probably now the best lead-up form for this race.
Illo and Tullamore were good in the MV Cup, surely gives them a chance.
Lucas Cranach a good run in the Caulfield Cup - Green Moon a great run!
2nd acceptances on Monday at 10am
Thoughts or opinions on the race that stops the nation?
Americain looks a mighty chance of backing up with another win in the great race, after an awesome run at the Valley today.
Dunaden has to be considered, as Geelong Cup form is probably now the best lead-up form for this race.
Illo and Tullamore were good in the MV Cup, surely gives them a chance.
Lucas Cranach a good run in the Caulfield Cup - Green Moon a great run!
2nd acceptances on Monday at 10am
Thoughts or opinions on the race that stops the nation?
Comments
I forgot to add a "not listed" to the poll - can't edit it now, if you think something outside those ten or so names will win, post it in this thread to discuss.
If you are looking for a roughie, and often in the great race you get a longshot in the placings, Niwot could be the one. It wasn't that bad a run in the Caulfield Cup after having to do work from the outside draw, then being left in front early when Mighty High punctured. He boxed on pretty well.
He's proven at the distance, albeit in much lesser company.
Will be international 1-2 though.
And further, no penalty for Americain, is that because it was a set weights race? They would be loving that, did look a weight special (even tho I was on Shewan...).
I reckon the french trainers got together and planned their campaigns so they wouldnt meet until the grand final 8)
Still a massive fan of At First Sight, unsure if it will get a run. Will win a lot if it gets in and wins, entered for Bendigo Cup on Wed
American is a Gun also backed it a few months ago
Dunaden goes without saying now.
If they all run there's my 1st 4 :lol:
Drunken Sailor shouldn't be ignored. A horse with concentration issues but is talented and is a certain each way chance. Flemington will suit.
Americain beat a very strong cup field last year and it's only danger this year could be a firm track and a slow pace or indeed a combination of both.
Unfortunately I find it difficult to select a local horse to fill a place.
He's a freak
Moyenne corniche- good win in the ebor and a nice run first go in oz. Im a little suss on tne ebor form as stable mate saptapadi sat wide and only got beat a few lengths by moyenne corniche. Saptapadi hasnt got hot here.
Jukebox jury - irish derby win at the mountain climbing track the curagh was gutsy. The thing i liked is that murtagh rode him along early and when put under pressure a long way out, he found plenty. On pace and very tough. Looked a smallish grey, no oil painting as far as i could tell on youtube.
Fox hunt- another out of the ebor, it was the unlucky runner and should have finished a clear second atleast. What i liked?...it was squeezed out of a run at the 200m mark, eased bck but showed a turn of foot to pick up and finish strong. I think it is a euro stayer with a few gears.
Unusual suspect - nice last start and i respect the camp its in. M.c.kent.
Its run in the gellong classic was a beauty, as good as INDUNA's which is a $6 chance and cornell is $51.
And i hope tney stick with d.moor if it does start. Kid is riding a bit for freedman and is in great form...riding really well.
just the bart factor basically.
Will obviously meet it better at the weights now.
On exposed form here, I don't mind Lucas Cranach, Unusual Suspect, Moyenne Corniche and Green Moon.
Americain is huge unders at $3.50; not many win with 58kgs and his form in Europe is inferior to a few of the others
But do agree it is going to be a great race this year, with so many internationals - finally the Europeans have realised they can't bring plodders for our great race!
Americain is still a big chance (even with the weight), because he can sit and sprint when needed. I won't be potting him! But the form of Jukebox Jury and Dunaden is nothing to sneeze at!
Agree americain is unders, especially with the possibility of it drawing inside which would ruin its chances, i thought that MV race had no substance to it apart from the winner.
The racing is foreign (literally :P), we all know that the import that wins the MC is the one with dash/ability to quicken. We know Americain and Dunaden have it, we know Manighar/Drunken Sailor don't (plodders). From the tapes, I'd be inclined to think JJ is more a Vinnie Roe type than a Media Puzzle type. VR >>>> MP in Europe, but here . . . . . completely different.
JJ is going to try and lead and set pace to suit. Last time someone tried that . . . . embarassment.
Plus we all know a lead up run here increases chances tenfold. In summary - forget the Euro form, believe what you see here. Americain or Dunaden wins it.
At First Sight has a start, Tanby, Sahara Sun and some others would need a significant penalty (2kg or more) to get a run . . . won't happen