Ascot Preview, 19th Mar 2016

PerthTurfTalk · March 2016

R1. Vale Brendan Thompson Handicap - Scott Embry

Without doubt the best card of racing we have seen in a long time at Ascot. A lot of exciting horses and mouthwatering clashes. In the first I'm going with the top weight in Carry The Nation. He has been desparately unlucky his past two and should probably have won both. Clint Johnson-Porter has a tough task because this 8 year old Blackfriars gelding only has a very short and sharp sprint on him. He must settle last and be in that position rounding the home corner and as a consequence often finds himself stuck in peak hour traffic. Hoping today can be the day to get the right splits and get us off to a flyer. Zoetomtaya is probably better suited in midweek grade at 1400m but with the claim for Randy Randy can go close to making it a Durrant quinella. Danish Delight is in a rich vein of form and from the soft draw can go very close to making it a winning hat-trick.

1. CARRY THE NATION - 8. ZOETOMTAYA - 5. DANISH DELIGHT

SUGGESTED BET - 1. CARRY THE NATION $100

thefalcon · March 2016

very open programme, if anybody can label one, you are a better judge than me*, gunga din.

*not a very harsh task...

:D

Thumper · March 2016

I'll label one for you Falcon, Bache. In addition to what Scott has already said there is little pace in the race, wind conditions should be favorable and if it happens to rain tomorrow and there is some sting out of this track this will also not be an issue.

$9.50 that PUNTA are currently offering is great shopping.

Thumper · March 2016

$8 now

PerthTurfTalk · March 2016

R2. Vale Peter Lynch Handicap - Scott Embry

Gotta love a grey gelding and Pounamu represents the peoples' choice in race 2. Frustrating to punters at his past two starts he looks better suited in a larger field and drops to the 54kg which should make him incredibly hard to hold out. He sprinted well last start after Carbery probably pulled the trigger a little early and switched off late when narrowly defeated by Star Exhibit. He will be looking to turn the tables on Pike here and knock off Regal Commander. Regal Commander is the obvious second choice and minor leg of a very popular quinella. They look the two on paper who should fight out the finish and I've gone with Pounamu on the simple basis that I think they're pretty similar talent wise with Pounamu having a softer draw and a 4kg weight advantage. Corporate Larrikin is stretched at 1400m and will roll along out in front, will look the winner at the top of the home straight but they'll be gobbling him up.

9. POUNAMU - 3. REGAL COMMANDER - 1. CORPORATE LARRIKIN

SUGGESTED BET - 9. POUNAMU $50

PerthTurfTalk · March 2016

R3. Natasha Stakes - Scott Embry

Thought the effort of Spirit Bird last start was far better than what it may look on paper. Azzopardi was able to throw the anchor out on Dreamtime Dancer and get the softest of leads and gave the back markers little to no hope at all on a heavily leader bias day at Ascot. With an extra two furlongs and possibly a different leader and even tempo I think Spirit Bird can turn the tables on both Arcadia Dream and Dreamtime Dancer. Expecting the Savabeel filly to thrive at 2200m and tipping The Pontiff to get the job done. Dreamtime Dancer was purchased by Geoff Durrant as a broodmare prospect as a weanling for a mere $2000 and now has two Listed races to her name and almost $200 000 in stakes earnings. She is bred to get 3200m so the staying trip won't worry her at all and is the major danger. Arcadia Dream was heavily backed in the Ascot 1000 Guineas and after Pike gave her a picture perfect run she loomed up and looked the winner at the top of the home straight before grinding to the line, unable to reel in Dreamtime Dancer. Didn't look like she was screaming out for 2200 and no surprise to see her go under as favourite again.

4. SPIRIT BIRD (NZ) - 3. ARCADIA DREAM - 1. DREAMTIME DANCER

SUGGESTED BET - 4. SPIRIT BIRD (NZ) $10 x $40

PerthTurfTalk · March 2016

R4. Grant Thornton-perth Stakes - Scott Embry

The runnings of the feature 2 year old Karrakatta preludes both look absolute crackers with the Listed Perth Stakes for the boys and Group 3 Gimcrack for the girls. Fair to say that Simon Miller probably has a speech written for both the events and rightly so after his absolute and utter domination of the juvenile season to date. Atacama Sky was a highly touted debutant after a blistering trial victory and lived up to the hype when winning by 2 lengths eased down over 1000m. Looks like he will find the fence here and lead it again and from there makes his own luck. The River was an exceptional winner of the 2 year old Magic Millions race at Pinjarra when settling midfield and powering over the top of them. Lusaha was bitterly disappointing on debut when looking relatively flat over the concluding stages. Blinkers removed and Harvey sticks, I'm still hoping my $51 eachway in the Karrakatta won't go to waste and fingers crossed he can give a genuine sight in this slick field.

4. ATACAMA SKY - 1. THE RIVER - 6. LUSAHA

piker · March 2016

Surely DD will win the first. He is in dazzling form.

In the 2nd I am gambling that RC in the straight has a break on Pounamou that will be far enough.

I have to stick with DD in the 3rd.

I tipped AS on debut with his good breeding; again better stay there in the 4th. Speeding Comet though does owe me after his last start failure.

Hard to split WB and Ellicorzoom, the latter a daughter of a v v good racemare.

Again winning form in the 6th is with the up and coming HS.

The 7th seems a bit difficult with 1,2,4,5,and 11. But then I see 8,9,10 and 12 too with hopes.

The last is again v open where I cant understand why Pinninci is 50's.

You can make a good case for 3,4,5,9 and 13.

Good luck to all!

PerthTurfTalk · March 2016

R5. Gimcrack Stakes - Scott Embry

Whispering Brook is undefeated at the trials and undefeated on race day in her short but impressive career to date. Lead on her ear and ran rivals into the ground at her return from a growth spell and looks to have massive claims in the Group 3 feature event. She should find the fence again here and lead them up but will need to be sharp to hold out highly talented chasers in Stored Energy and Spangled Impact. Spangled Impact is two from two at 1100m at Ascot and her warm up trial was simply sensational. She'll settle towards the rear of the field and be mowing grass late in the piece. Stored Energy was something beaten in the inaugural 2 year old Magic Millions Pinjarra when conceeding The River a start and flying home to get within a length. Pretty confident that the winner will come from one of those three and they should have a strangle hold over the market. Ellicazoom comes from an expensive family and set Parnham back $180 000 at the Gold Coast sales, has looked extremely sharp at all three trial victories but will need every ounce of luck from barrier 12 on debut in a very talented field.

2. WHISPERING BROOK - 1. SPANGLED IMPACT - 4. STORED ENERGY

PerthTurfTalk · March 2016

R6. Schweppes-j.c. Roberts Stakes - Scott Embry

Thinking I've played my cards perfectly so far by labeling Kia Ora Koutou as a lay first-up at a mile and will now jump on board the bangwagon second-up at 1800m. Expecting him to be ridden cold and settle towards the tail of the field rather than how he was first-up when pushed forwards, ridden outside his comfort zone and flopped quite badly considering the price tag and level of expectation. I've saved my money by not backing him first-up and will now openly invest in him to win the J.C Roberts on class, slaughter them over 2200m in the Melvista and record an emphatic victory in the WATC Derby. Expecting to see a completely different horse here and Azzopardi to let him roll through his gears from the 800m and round them up. Who Dat Singa as the main danger ridden positively on speed and the Cerise and White of Real Love's half brother Heart Starter to finish in third. If you're backing Kia Ora Koutou in the All-In Derby market I would suggest doing it before the J.C Roberts on Saturday because I think he'll go very close.

1. KIA ORA KOUTOU - 2. WHO DAT SINGA (NZ) - 3. HEART STARTER

SUGGESTED BET - 1. KIA ORA KOUTOU $50 x $50

PerthTurfTalk · March 2016

R7. Keys Bros. Group Handicap - Scott Embry

This race looks like it should be a nice assignment for Simon Miller's second-up specialist in Bache. Her run first-up when caught four and five wide throughout over 1000m was enormous and given time to recover from that gut-buster returns here second-up where she is undefeated, 2 wins from 2 attempts. Should slide over for senior hoop Peter Knuckey to lead or box seat and from there will take a stack of running down. Travellin' was backed off the charts last start before running a fair fourth alongside Roger The Roman and Ripper Red. Those three horses have nothing between them and it basically comes down to which of the three gets the better run for the order in which they finish. Ripper Red has the best turn of foot of any horse in the race but his racing pattern of settling last and weaving through traffic is a recipe for punter frustration. Roger The Roman gets a nice weight relief care of Jake Casey's claim while Travellin' is perfectly drawn to get a soft on speed run.

9. BACHE - 5. ROGER THE ROMAN - 2. TRAVELLIN'

PerthTurfTalk · March 2016

R8. Broome International Airport Handicap - Scott Embry

The weekly Get-Out Stakes doesn't get much harder than this with a punters nightmare to finish the day. Eventually after a lengthy scratch of the head I've settled on Classical Prince. It's very hard to ignore his recent form and slashing finishing burst. He should get another luxurious run from the barrier and be right there at the perfect time. Bourne Supremacy is always there abouts and comes from the exact same form lines as Classical Prince. Volkoff can not be discounted, she is an Ascot specialist and looks much better suited back at 1100 after finding Secret Nova too sharp at the 1000m dash for cash. War Prince was painful viewing for those like myself who backed him last start, he'll win one sooner rather than later. Sujet is a first-up specialist but who really knows these days with that old chestnut. Mississippian is super talented but will conceed them all a massive head start first-up. Don't forget the 3 year old Senso who could easily fly the gates and pounce straight on the bunny and lead from go to woah. PTT Quaddie Club Investment: 1,2,4 / 1,2,3 / 2,5,9,11 / 1,3,4,5,10,12,13 - $100 = 40%

4. CLASSICAL PRINCE (NZ) - 9. BOURNE SUPREMACY - 13. SENSO

H-BOMBER · March 2016

I will be relying heavily on these tomorrow night #slipperday

razor · March 2016

first start new trainer I rekon i'm feelin lucky is value

Chris · March 2016

So does Hoops

psycho · March 2016

BEST BETS Danish Delight and Volkoff and in R2 a gamble on Back to a walk should keep you in the money

thefalcon · March 2016

my "ruffie" is spin da wheels...specked last start.....

thefalcon · March 2016

you may be right about Bache, thumper. my cuz is a part owner with the blokes from Hard Ball Get, easiest 500k they ever made.... :-\"

sunrise · March 2016

I'm with DD in the first. Race 2 I like Back To A Walk and Pounamu for the quinella. Indigo Ora to run a cheeky race at 50's. Should of finished closer against the faves last start. I might even speck on Culverin at 30's.