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Ascot Preview, 5th Mar 2016
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
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R1. Amelia Park Handicap - Perth Turf Talk
Took a cautious approach with North Ridge last start having to lump a full 59kg on a potentially leader bias track and it paid dividends. $1.90 is short but I expect him to drift to more like $2.50 by the jump and that's when I'll be on, reinvesting earlier winnings. Carries only 54kg in a small field and should be too classy. Carry The Nation was probably a good thing beaten last start after Aaron Mitchell tried to pinch runs and got badly hampered. He'll settle at the back and give one sharp kick late. Miki Two Toes looks one of a few handy light weight rides for The Pontiff and if his last start is anything to go by will be testing them. Not a lot of love outside those 3.
6. NORTH RIDGE - 1. CARRY THE NATION - 5. MIKI TWO TOES
SUGGESTED BET - 6. NORTH RIDGE $50
Took a cautious approach with North Ridge last start having to lump a full 59kg on a potentially leader bias track and it paid dividends. $1.90 is short but I expect him to drift to more like $2.50 by the jump and that's when I'll be on, reinvesting earlier winnings. Carries only 54kg in a small field and should be too classy. Carry The Nation was probably a good thing beaten last start after Aaron Mitchell tried to pinch runs and got badly hampered. He'll settle at the back and give one sharp kick late. Miki Two Toes looks one of a few handy light weight rides for The Pontiff and if his last start is anything to go by will be testing them. Not a lot of love outside those 3.
6. NORTH RIDGE - 1. CARRY THE NATION - 5. MIKI TWO TOES
SUGGESTED BET - 6. NORTH RIDGE $50
Comments
My roughie is Royal Attraction at 100s. Certainly not the worst and actually hit the line ok last start
I've been eagerly awaiting this day for a fair while now. Lusaha, in my opinion, will turn out to be one of the better 2 year olds we'll see and I have a bit invested in him already to win the Karrakatta at 50-1. Those odds are long gone now and I'm pretty excited over a month out. I think he'll take care of these with ease and stride forward to the Group 2 juvenile feature. Trials have been excellent and he is yet to be posed the question. With Paul Harvey steering this is the best on the card and one to keenly follow. Well named Helmet gelding Chin Strap will relish 1200m and looks a lock for any places multi's. Whispering Brook was an early 2 year old winner and immediately tipped out for a spell. Has trialled up well again and will be putting her stamp on the race. Very keen on Lusaha in the Supremacy on debut and then all guns blazing into the Karrakatta at $51 eachway #giddyup
3. LUSAHA - 1. CHIN STRAP - 6. WHISPERING BROOK
SUGGESTED BET - 3. LUSAHA $100
Tough watching over the concluding stages last week for backers of Pounamu like myself. Looked to be travelling great guns as they rounded the home corner with Carbery sitting quietly aboard the glamorous grey before Danish Delight put a break on them and scrambled home. Bit of an unknown Pounamu on the 7 day back up but this race looks at his mercy. I'm happy enough to try and retrieve some of my lost dough here and back him in again. Fo' Shizzle is as honest as they come and seldom runs a bad race. Expect Randy Tan to put her into it from the 600 and I think there'll be more horses who don't catch her than those that will. Paris Dream is a regular bridesmaid and it would seem Grant Williams is still trying to figure out exactly what her best distance is. I think in time it will be 2200m and it wouldn't surprise to see her head for a spell soon and return for Adam Durrant next preparation as a stayer. Not a lot of depth to this one and Pounamu does look hard to beat again on paper.
2. POUNAMU - 1. FO' SHIZZLE - 4. PARIS DREAM
SUGGESTED BET - 2. POUNAMU $100
Hot Goods is a tiny little pocket rocket who pulled herself into the ground last start at $1.10 after a blistering trial victory and ruined her undefeated record at career start number 6. W.Pike goes on but she is drawn barrier 10 of 10 with speedy types like Marchand and Kennocha drawn to her inside. Interesting to see how she goes but I think as we saw last start, if there is pressure she might just be her own worst enemy. Classical Prince is the way I've settled. With a 2kg weight swing on Bourne Supremacy and residual fitness under his belt I think he can sprint over the top of them. 56.5kg looks a luxury for him, as does barrier 2 and at the eachway quota I'm happy to have him on top. Bourne Supremacy was the target of sigificant bets first-up and almost stole the prize in a three way photo with Classical Prince and Secret Nova, a form line we know has already held up. Should go mighty close again from back in the field. Marchand is first ride back for Jordy Turner after a broken cheekbone and looks a nice engagement for the highly talented apprentice. Leaving Hot Goods out of my top 3 and risking her at the price.
2. CLASSICAL PRINCE (NZ) - 5. BOURNE SUPREMACY - 3. MARCHAND
Spirit Bird has Oaks written all over her and the Listed Ascot 1000 Guineas looks a perfect stepping stone into that race. Not a lot of depth to this field at all and Spirit Bird's run in the Challenge Stakes was outstanding. Has run six second placings from only 11 career starts but they've all been in top quality company and with Paul Harvey riding at 54kg I think we can expect her to be very hard to beat. Arcadia Dream was tipped by every man and his dog first-up from a spell and ran a handy race but lacked her electric turn of foot most were expecting. Second-up at 1800m is also a bit of a fitness query for mine. Dreamtime Dancer was excellent in the Challenger Stakes and should make her presence felt again. On breeding should cover 3200+ so the step up is no concern what so ever for her. I'm leaving Blackwood alone this time but will be included in my quaddie because her run last start was much better than it reads.
4. SPIRIT BIRD (NZ) - 2. ARCADIA DREAM - 3. DREAMTIME DANCER
SUGGESTED BET - 4. SPIRIT BIRD (NZ) $25 x $25
Throwing up one at odds in the third leg of the quaddie in King Of The Palace. I think he's actually tracking pretty well and expecting him to go close in this evenly graded, yet modest affair. None of these are world beaters and closer to Wednesday types than Saturday horses. King Of The Palace has been reeling off rapid sectionals from the back in recent times and given a soft run from barrier 1 for Magic Jordan he shouldn't spend a penny in running and if he can get the required splits late then could blow many out of the quaddie. Definitely worthy of inclusion in all bets considering he ran a faster final 600 than both Regal Commander and Classical Prince in a higher quality affair than this last start. Stable Secret was enormous last time out when settling last and rattling home. Expecting him to get a cosy run behind fleet footed speed machine Potent Secret, who looks far better suited at 1100m than he was at 1200m.
4. KING OF THE PALACE - 2. STABLE SECRET - 5. POTENT SECRET
SUGGESTED BET - 4. KING OF THE PALACE $25
Regal Commander is the logical pick in the last and stepping up to 1400m looks a perfect assignment for the Durrant trained gelding. First-up victory was effortless, sitting up on speed before holding out talented mare Volkoff over the concluding stages. Second-up was simply too far back when Detection had them strung out over 10 lengths coming into the bend. The race could be run in a fairly similar fashion here with Corporate Larrikin and It's It both sporting skates out in front. Tipping Pike to bounce back and Regal Commander to get home in the last for favourite punters. Willing to forgive and forget the last run of Kheleva and think that $15 the drum for a horse who has won 6 from 23 in his career and 5 of 9 over 1400m is a ridiculously juicy price. First-up effort only beaten 2 lengths by Secret Nova when racing in restricted room for the majority, cluttered away on the fence was pretty handy. It's It is in a rich vein of form and drops a remarkable 6kg on his last start victory to a feather weight of 51.5kg. PTT Quaddie Club: 1,2,3,4,7 / 1,3,4 / 1,2,3,4,5,7,12 / 5 - $100 = 95%
5. REGAL COMMANDER - 2. KHELEVA - 8. IT'S IT
SUGGESTED BET - 5. REGAL COMMANDER $75
jum, H-BOMBER likes this post.
i wonder what happened to it(perfect reflection), as it was obvious from the get go, that something was bothering it.
my mistake sweetheart.
2 bloody 2nd's.
R 7: 12 Ripper Red $20 x $60
Wizard likes this post.