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Ascot Preview, 9th Jan 2016
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Book Your Function At Ascot Handicap - Scott Embry
Flying Roar looked a good thing beaten last start, slow away from the inside he eventually made his way to the middle of the track from the top of the straight and just failed to reel in Antique Dream. This small field should suit but it does look a little harder than his last start opposition. Back down to the 54kg minimum should offset that and he looks ready to win. Stablemate New Time is a grand old campaigner and 1400m is his pet distance with 6 wins and 4 minors from 17 starts at Ascot over the 7 furlongs. Far from disgraced first-up behind Flytego when sitting wide on the speed, should give a good account. Adam Durrant gets these old gallopers up early in their preparation so no surprise to see Carry The Nation finishing hard. All but given up on Hobart Jones who just looks to be battling.
5. FLYING ROAR - 2. NEW TIME - 3. CARRY THE NATION
Flying Roar looked a good thing beaten last start, slow away from the inside he eventually made his way to the middle of the track from the top of the straight and just failed to reel in Antique Dream. This small field should suit but it does look a little harder than his last start opposition. Back down to the 54kg minimum should offset that and he looks ready to win. Stablemate New Time is a grand old campaigner and 1400m is his pet distance with 6 wins and 4 minors from 17 starts at Ascot over the 7 furlongs. Far from disgraced first-up behind Flytego when sitting wide on the speed, should give a good account. Adam Durrant gets these old gallopers up early in their preparation so no surprise to see Carry The Nation finishing hard. All but given up on Hobart Jones who just looks to be battling.
5. FLYING ROAR - 2. NEW TIME - 3. CARRY THE NATION
Comments
In what is pretty much a Perth 2 year old stables heavy weight clash we see Simon Miller up against Trevor Andrews and Neville Parnham. Really the only juvenile stable missing from the bout is Paul Jordan. I'm putting Andrews on top and going with The River on debut. I think he looks a nice type and if it was 1100m rather than 1000 I would be even more confident. Both trial victories have been super impressive and considering they backed Guest Express off the charts on debut who was well beaten by The River I think that gives us an indication to the quality of the galloper. Speeding Comet will lead and prove the one to run down. Drifted a long way in betting on debut, from around $1.80 out to $2.90 but that was because the Parnham runner Next Generation was extremely well supported. Expecting those two to be close together again and fill the holes in the popular trifecta. Hard to really see much else figuring in the finish.
6. THE RIVER - 1. SPEEDING COMET - 2. NEXT GENERATION
SUGGESTED BET - 6. THE RIVER $10 x $40
If this was an 8 horse field and a pay 1-2-3 event I would be a lot more confident but alas it's pay 1-2 and I'll nibble anyway. Operational, that old cat as I'm sure many refer to him. I think hes actually been ticking over quite nicely and can surprise the more favoured opponents. His run behind Dubai Escapade coming down the middle from last was highly encouraging and then he was caught 3 deep on the speed throughout behind Properantes and given absolutely no hope behind Bedamijo in the A.T.A. Missed out on a Cup run as first emergency and in the small field here at $17 I'm willing to play. Putting him on top as value. Don'tgetcaught was given every possible chance to win last start and was out stayed by Dark Alert making it quite a questionable form reference. Pike goes on, obviously a big plus but up to 2350m which is a questionmark and into $1.90 which is way too short. Happy to risk him and play Operational. Cougar Express is a true stayer, he should find the fence and roll along out in front controlling the tempo and giving a decent kick at the top of the straight.
3. OPERATIONAL - 7. DON'TGETCAUGHT - 6. COUGAR EXPRESS
SUGGESTED BET - 3. OPERATIONAL $10 x $40
I can only make one case for going to the track on Saturday and that is to witness Lite'n in my veins destroy opponents in race 4. I confidently threw him out on debut in a Group 3 race and he duly saluted. Watch his trial from Monday, he sat three deep the trip and pulled away for an effortless victory. Not really a betting proposition at $1.30 but if I can grab say $1.50 on betfair then happy days. In my opinion he is a very, very talented galloper who will win some handy races over a mile and beyond. He holds a mortgage over this race and you can pop the prize money into the account now. Game, Set, Match. Merrijig was a decent enough maiden winner and only carrying 51kg probably represents the only other winning hope, if there even is one. Throwing up Glitterbell as the value runner for trifectas, has been sound at his past two and should be around the mark for Paddy Carbery who is riding extremely well at the minute.
2. LITE'N IN MY VEINS - 9. MERRIJIG - 4. GLITTERBELL
SUGGESTED BET - 2. LITE'N IN MY VEINS $100
SunnyBoy likes this post.
This moderate (at best) 3 year old sprint is an ugly start to the quaddie and not a race I'm at all keen to play in. Putting Albany trained galloper My Greek Boy on top as probably the best 'value' in the race at around the $12 mark. Won emphatically first-up, albiet in the deep south, and then was heavily supported second-up in midweek grade when leading and floundering late before heading back home where he was no match for the incredibly well supported Unperterbed. No confidence what so ever but one I think definitely worth for exotic inclusion if you're so hooked that you have to play in the race! Viking Forrest is a maiden having his second career start on the back of an encouraging trial victory. Looks a handy type with a gun draw. I Do De Claire is a last start winner who must be respected while Diamond Tonique ran 2nd to Scales of Justice who looks a horse in the making. Definitely proceed with caution.
5. MY GREEK BOY - 7. VIKING FORREST - 3. I DO DE CLAIRE
Another very even contest but this time one I'm keen to play in. Ripper Red has been simply sensational this preparation and I'm going to mark him as the best bet on the card. First-up third at Northam was electric coming from well off them he found trouble at every possible chance and still mananged to jag third. Second-up a powerful winner of the Provincial Sprinters final and then last start was mowing turf late when running into third behind Volkoff and Heavy Set. Ran the fastest final 600m and really was flying late. With Fuld's Bet likely to roll along out in front and sporting those (n)ever popular Bar Plates I think she will be left a sitting duck for Ripper Red to make it 3 wins from 25 starts and really begin a transition through the grades to a genuine Saturday sprinter. Jumping on hard and expecting him to Rip them apart. Wicked Hunter is a hard one to catch and may well be better suited dropping back to 1200m here. Barrier 1 a major concern for a get back type horse. Fuld's Bet the obvious and only leader. Bar Plates were added to gear last start before she was scratched so I assume they are still on which is enough for me to stay clear.
5. RIPPER RED - 3. WICKED HUNTER - 1. FULD'S BET
SUGGESTED BET - 5. RIPPER RED $50 x $50
Hard to argue, Team Casey is flying. Whether it's Sean, Kristy or even Dave Casey training there are winners near by. Jake is riding extremely well all round the state both metro and provincially and I think Detection can extend that good run. His first-up effort beating the likes of Silverstream when second to Dueton was excellent and then second-up struggled to find a position in running and was never really a chance in the Summer Scorcher behind Sheidel, Lucky Street and Rebel King. This assignment looks a deal easier and I really think a step up to 1200m will be in his favour. $7.50 is a decent eachway price and I think he is worth a small investment. Distant Memory is ticking along well and is a quaddie blowout hope. Won on the soaked Ascot ground and then has been relatively unlucky since. His final 600m behind Volkoff was encouraging and he could bob up at odds. Reflectance has turned a corner since joining Lindsay Smith but the drop from 1400m back to 1200m has thrown me. Not one I would have predicted and I think he could find a couple of these a little sharp. Many chances in a wide open leg of the quaddie.
3. DETECTION - 9. DISTANT MEMORY - 4. REFLECTANCE
SUGGESTED BET - 3. DETECTION $10 x $40
Putting my faith in The Pontiff, Paul Harvey to carry me home in the last aboard Django. I thought his last start effort flying late behind Antique Dream was very impressive. Glenn Smith couldn't make his mind up after jumping fairly, initially pushing forwards to 3 deep midfield before restraining to 3 deep last where the horse really resented being held back, pulling like an inform Shaun Marsh. Once they straightened for home and he balanced up he came home with a really strong finsh. Prior form behind Goldbo and Reflectance holds up well with the latter winning two in a row since. With Harvey on he should be able to box seat in barrier 1 and provided he gets a run at the right time I think he can prove too strong here. Happy to play at around the $8 mark, with a places bias in case he is held up. Saker you can almost certainly pencil in again for second. Finished bridesmaid at a remarkable 8 of 13 career starts, certainly a wallet burner for any favourite backers. Rodeo Drive seems to have turned a corner and should be rock hard fit on the weeks back up from an 1800m back down to a mile. Expecting Danish Delight to settle further back than last start and pretty confident that the winner will come from one of those 4 so they're the horses I'll play in the final leg of the quaddie. PTT Quaddie Club: Fld / 1,5 / 2,3,4,5,7,9 / 2,4,6,9 - $100 = 23%
2. DJANGO - 9. SAKER - 4. RODEO DRIVE
SUGGESTED BET - 2. DJANGO $10 x $40
the person doing the preview seems to have some obsession with Operational :P
talk about staying loyal and not being able to let go :-?
Wizard likes this post.
Ripper Red - a fav of mine and I think is in top form and should run over the top of them with ease. 4.50 a very nice price by our mates.
Reflectance - I agree the step back to 1200 is a little left field, but he is miles better than these in his current form. Looks like a good Sydney galloper beating them at the moment and I think class will prevail.
Both each way prices and couple up wins and places in doubles and trebles with the obvious Lite'n'in my veins
Good luck!
Just figuring out how to use this....:-)
@Wizard
Watch tomorrow and find out
B-)therealkramer, OliversTwist, thefalcon likes this post.
Darkhorse, thefalcon likes this post.
Watch this trial from Monday...black silks with white cap (Lucy Warwick). He is teasing them...
http://www.perthracing.org.au/race-meetings/2016/jan/belmont-trials---04-january-2016/heat-05-belmont-trials-04-01-16
I know it was a joke, the person i'm referring to knows I know who he is, it seems each time it runs he makes a strong case for tipping in only to be let down time and time again ;)
maybe If he wanted it to win he could stop tipping it then murphy's law says it'll win
Wizard likes this post.
LIMV IMO beat an ordinary lot last start.
Admittedly Sat's lot are generally worse!
But if Merrijig has improved a couple of lengths from it's maiden win plus a 7kg weight pull, maybe?
Wizard likes this post.
Wizard likes this post.
bit off topic but Bass Strait goes around in the last today at Caulfield $5.00 3rd fav
I'd buyyyy tharttt for a dolla